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Title: Schooling, Skill Demand and Di§erential Fertility in the Process of Structural Transformation
Citation Type: Miscellaneous
Publication Year: 2017
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Abstract: The aggregate fertility rate and the agricultural employment share in the U.S. both declined from the late 19th century to the eve of the baby boom. I document two important forces behind this observation: (1) the agricultural sector had a higher fertility rate, so when the share of the agricultural sector declined, the aggregate fertility rate followed; (2) the education reform increased the relative odds that rural youth received an education and moved to the non-farm sector. I build a two-sector overlapping generations model that features endogenous fertility and occupational choice to evaluate the e§ects of the education reform, the technological progress and child-rearing cost. Through counterfactual analysis, I Önd that the education reform accounts for one fourth of the declines in the fertility rate, and that of the agricultural employment share drop, together with more than half of the skill intensity increase in the model. Shutdown quality-quantity tradeo§ channel by exogenously Öxing the fertility rates would reduce 20% of the structural transformation generated in the model.
Url: http://econ.hkbu.edu.hk/eng/Doc/JMP.pdf
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Authors: Cheung, T. Terry
Publisher: Washington University in St. Louis
Data Collections: IPUMS USA
Topics: Education, Fertility and Mortality, Labor Force and Occupational Structure
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