Full Citation
Title: Prospects for Later-Life Migration in Urban Europe
Citation Type: Miscellaneous
Publication Year: 2010
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Abstract: Objectives/Aims: Later life migration among the baby boomer generation will have far-reaching implications of economic development and for planning strategies to ensure adequate health, housing and welfare in the right place at the right time. However, much of the current debate about the future trajectory of this type of human mobility has been based on speculation. The goal of this research is to gain a better understanding of later life migration and the likely future trajectory of the retired baby boomers in Europe. Methodology The objective of this report is to focus on the effects of an ageing population in terms of urban development and retirement migration. The report discusses the regional population projections and its social impacts. An analysis on the impacts of urbanization and differential ageing across regions will be given. Moving beyond the simple assumption of a continuation of current trends, a number of alternative scenarios are explored to simulate the likely future trajectories of the baby boomers. Potential impacts on retirement migration caused by changes in average retirement age, altered lifestyle preferences and the large size of the baby boomer generation are considered. Results / findings / conclusion Contrary to the view of Keyfitz (1982: 729), empirical knowledge about past demographic trends can improve the accuracy of predictions (see also Sanderson, 1998). However, the importance of uncertainty in projecting future retirement migration behaviour has to be acknowledged. Factors such as the size of the cohort can be predicted beforehand, whereas the boomers’ decision making and preferences in retirement are inherently unpredictable. Using scenarios that take into account potential shifts in intensity and spatial structure caused by the distinctive behaviour of the baby boomer generation helps to bound the uncertainty, but it does not help to incorporate into the projections factors such as the high cultural diversity and income inequality among the boomers, the impact of the global financial crisis on pension funds, and the increasing diversity of transitions from work to retirement.
Url: http://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/9386/1/XO-10-020.pdf
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Authors: Sander, Nikola; Skirbekk, Vegard; Lundevaller, Erling; KC, Samir
Publisher: Plurel
Data Collections: IPUMS USA
Topics: Migration and Immigration
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