Full Citation

Title: Looking for Local Labor-Market Effects of the NAFTA

Citation Type: Working Paper

Publication Year: 2010

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Abstract: Using US Census data for 1990 and 2000, we estimate effects of the NAFTA agreementon the US wages. We look for any indication of effects of the agreement on (i)local labor markets dependent on industries vulnerable to import competition fromMexico, and (ii) workers employed in industries competing with Mexican imports. Wefind evidence of only modest local labor-market effects, but evidence for a strong industryeffect, dramatically lowering wage growth for blue-collar workers in the mostaffected industries. These distributional effects are much larger than aggregate welfareeffects estimated by other authors. In addition, we find strong evidence of anticipatoryadjustment in places whose protection was expected to fall but had not yet fallen;this adjustment appears to have conferred an anticipatory rent to workers in thoselocations.

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Authors: Hakobyan, Shushanik; McLaren, John

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Publication Number: 16535

Institution: National Bureau of Economic Research

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Publisher Location: Cambridge, MA

Data Collections: IPUMS USA

Topics: Labor Force and Occupational Structure, Other

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