Full Citation
Title: Population Mobility And The Development Of Botswana's 1 Generalized Hiv Epidemic: A Network Analysis 2 3 4 5
Citation Type: Miscellaneous
Publication Year: 2023
ISBN:
ISSN:
DOI: 10.1101/2023.02.01.23285339
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PMID:
Abstract: 19 The majority of people with HIV live in sub-Saharan Africa, where HIV epidemics are generalized. 20 For these epidemics to develop, populations need to be mobile. However, population-level 21 mobility has not yet been studied in the context of the development of generalized HIV epidemics. 22 Here we do so by studying historical migration data from Botswana which has one of the most 23 severe generalized HIV epidemics worldwide; in 2021, HIV prevalence was 21%. The country 24 reported its first AIDS case in 1985 when it began to rapidly urbanize. We hypothesize that, during 25 the development of Botswana's epidemic, the population was highly mobile and there were 26 substantial urban-to-rural and rural-to-urban migratory flows. We test this hypothesis by 27 conducting a network analysis using a historical time series (1981 to 2011) of micro-census data 28 from Botswana. We found 10% of the population moved their residency annually, complex 29 migration networks connected urban with rural areas, and there were very high rates of rural-to-30 urban migration. Notably, we also found mining towns were both important inflow and out-flow 31 migration hubs; consequently, there was a very high turnover of residents in towns. Our results 32 support our hypothesis, and together, provide one explanation for the development of Botswana's 33 generalized epidemic.
Url: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2023.02.01.23285339v1.full.pdf
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Authors: Song, Janet; Okano, Justin T; Ponce, Joan; Busang, Lesego; Seipone, Khumo; Valdano, Eugenio; Blower, Sally
Publisher: medRxiv
Data Collections: IPUMS International
Topics: Health, Population Mobility and Spatial Demography
Countries: Botswana