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Title: The Long-term Consequences of the Global 1918 Influenza Pandemic: A Systematic Analysis of 117 IPUMS International Census Data Sets
Citation Type: Working Paper
Publication Year: 2017
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Abstract: Several country-level studies, including a prominent one for the United States, have identified long-term effects of in-utero exposure to the 1918 influenza pandemic (also known as the Spanish Flu) on economic outcomes in adulthood. In-utero conditions are theoretically linked to adult health and socioeconomic status through the fetal origins or Barker hypothesis. Historical exposure to the Spanish Flu provides a natural experiment to test this hypothesis. Although the Spanish Flu was a global phenomenon, with around 500 million people infected worldwide, there exists no comprehensive global study on its long-term economic effects. We attempt to close this gap by systematically analyzing 117 Census data sets provided by IPUMS International. We do not find consistent global long-term effects of influenza exposure on education, employment and disability outcomes. A series of robustness checks does not alter this conclusion. Our findings indicate that the existing evidence on long-term economic effects of the Spanish Flu is likely a consequence of publication bias.
Url: https://cinch.uni-due.de/fileadmin/content/research/workingpaper/CINCH-Series-Wojcik.pdf
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Authors: Vollmer, Sebastian; Wojcik, Juditha
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Publication Number: 2017/08
Institution: Health Economics Research Center
Pages: 89
Publisher Location: Essen, Germany
Data Collections: IPUMS International
Topics: Health, Methodology and Data Collection
Countries: Argentina, Austria, Bolivia, Brazil, Burkina Faso, Cameroon, Canada, Chile, China, Colombia, Costa Rica, Dominican Republic, Ecuador, Fiji, France, Germany, Ghana, Greece, Guinea, Haiti, Hungary, India, Indonesia, Ireland, Jamaica, Kenya, Liberia, Malawi, Malaysia, Mali, Mexico, Mongolia, Morocco, Netherlands, Nicaragua, Pakistan, Panama, Philippines, Portugal, Puerto Rico, Romania, Saint Lucia, Senegal, Spain, Switzerland, Tanzania, Thailand, Turkey, Uruguay, Venezuela, Vietnam, Zambia