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Title: Does Enrollment Lead to Completion? The Link Between Increased High School Persistence and High School Graduation in Response to Trade Exposure

Citation Type: Miscellaneous

Publication Year: 2019

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Abstract: While adverse local labor market shocks such as those induced by increased exposure of local industries to trade have unambiguously negative effects on workers’ employment prospects, the impact on high school enrollment and completion is ambiguous. Incentives to stay in school increase when employment prospects are weak; yet, public resources for local schools may also shrink, with cutbacks negatively impacting high school degree attainment. How large are the enrollment effects at the high school level? And, does increased time in school translate to high school degree attainment? This paper demonstrates that, while high school enrollment rates increase significantly, high school degree attainment does not show commensurate growth. Diploma counts relative to the population indicate only a modest increase, while the share of young adults with a high school degree in a community does not change. The correspondence between high school enrollment and diploma receipt of young adults reflects important measurement issues, as “outmigration” of young adults and changes in the timing of degree receipt may complicate measurement. Moreover, the negative impact of trade exposure on secondary school resources per student operates in the opposite direction of enrollment demand, likely attenuating gains in attainment and student achievement.

Url: http://economics.virginia.edu/sites/economics.virginia.edu/files/BT_draft_01_14_20.pdf

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Authors: Burga, Ramiro; Turner, Sarah

Publisher: University of Virginia

Data Collections: IPUMS USA

Topics: Education, Labor Force and Occupational Structure

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