This dissertation encompasses three essays that examine the extent to which parental loss and social programs affect the health, education and time allocation of children in developing countries. The first chapter asks the question of whether early life public health interventions have lasting or long term impact on children’s human capital development. In order to answer this question, this chapter investigates the long term impact of the safe motherhood program in Indonesia on later cognition and schooling outcomes of children when they are age 11 to 17 years. The paper further investigates this question by examining the impact of the program based on exposure that began during a particular year. The findings suggest that the safe motherhood program had an impact on adolescent cognition and schooling. In particular, the program impact is relatively large and significant for those children who began exposure to the program at age 2 or younger, or not yet conceived. These estimates are robust to a series of robustness and specification checks. The results are also in general consistent with the findings in biological literature that suggest the importance of the first two years of life in shaping outcomes later in life. The second chapter examines the question of how parental loss or absence affects child well-being. While the strategy of many papers in the literature is to use parental death due to HIV/Aids to examine this question, this chapter uses the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami as a plausibly exogenous source of variation in parental death. In addition, the paper uses a unique longitudinal dataset that has baseline information on the same sample of individuals interviewed after the tsunami. Also, given rich data, the paper is able to look at various dimensions of child well-being which include school attendance, post-secondary aspirations, time allocation as well as educational attainment and marriage decisions for older children. The paper provides an in-depth analysis by examining the impact of parental death by age and gender of the child as well as looking at the impact in the short term and longer term. The results suggest that death of both parents, which has been little explored in the literature, has a large, negative impact on the human capital accumulation of both males and females. The loss of father alone led older males (aged 15 to 17 at the time of tsunami) to acquire less education compared to same age males whose both parents survived, while no effect is found on younger males aged 9 to 14. Furthermore, the results suggest that maternal death has little impact on schooling outcomes but does affect time allocation of children. Finally, the third chapter examines the impact of a unique bilateral grant-aid program which provided typhoon-resistant schools and instructional equipment to the Philippines. The results suggest that the presence of both the typhoon-resistant schools and instructional equipment programs had a positive impact on the educational attainment of both men and women. The availability of instructional equipment program alone also increased the educational attainment of men but it does not seem to have had substantive effect on women. On the other hand, the availability of typhoon- resistant schools without the instructional equipment package did not have any impact on schooling outcomes of either the males or females. Except for the falsification exercise which suggests that there could be other underlying trends which may not be fully captured by the specifications, the estimates are in general robust to the inclusion of individual level characteristics, accounting of other concurrent national government’s programs, restricting to municipalities in the typhoon belt region and accounting for municipality-specific trends. The findings suggest the importance of not only expanding access to schooling through increased availability of schools or classrooms (particularly, those that are resistant to natural disasters) but also the importance of improving the quality of learning through the availability of school resources that aide in students’ learning in developing countries.

This paper documents the production of a panel of price indices for housing services, other produced goods, and all produced goods for each metropolitan area in the United States and the non-metropolitan part of each state from 1982 through 2010 that can be used for estimating behavioral relationships, studying the workings of markets, and assessing differences in the economic circumstances of people living in different areas. The panel will be extended each year beyond 2010. Our general approach is to first produce cross-sectional price indices for a single year 2000 and then use BLS time-series price indices to create the panel. Our geographic housing price index for 2000 is based on a large data set with detailed information about the characteristics of dwelling units and their neighborhoods throughout the United States that enables us to overcome many shortcomings of existing interarea housing price indices. For most areas, our price index for all goods other than housing is calculated from the price indices for categories of non-housing goods produced each quarter by the Council for Community and Economic Research. In order to produce a non-housing price index for areas of the United States not covered by their index, we estimate a theoretically-based regression model explaining differences in the composite price index for non-housing goods for areas where it is available and use it to predict a price of other goods for the uncovered areas. The overall consumer price index for all areas is based on the preceding estimates of the price of housing and other goods. The paper discusses existing interarea price indices available to researchers, compares the new housing price index with housing price indices based on alternative methods using the same data and price indices based on alternative data sets, and illustrates the use of the price indices by estimating housing demand functions. Electronic versions of the price indices are available online.

Many existing studies use employment density to measure labor market agglomeration economies and find that agglomeration economies raise wages in employment clusters. We argue that social interaction is the channel through which agglomeration economies take place and are captured by workers. Using the 2000 U.S. census data and occupation attributes data, we construct variables to measure a workers face-to-face communication, non-face-to-face communication, and overall social interaction skills. We find that social interaction skills contribute to wages, consistent with the studies on the returns to skills in urban labor markets. More importantly, we find that a worker with little social interaction skills cannot benefit from agglomeration economies and workers with higher social interaction skills benefit more from agglomeration economies. The findings are robust to many specifications and support the idea that the fundamental role of cities is to promote social interactions.

Statistical agencies and other organizations that disseminate data are obligated to protect data subjects' confidentiality. For example, illintentioned individuals might link data subjects to records in other databases by matching on common characteristics (keys). Successful links are particularly problematic for data subjects with combinations of keys that are unique in the population. Hence, as part of their assessments of disclosure risks, many data stewards estimate the probabilities that sample uniques on sets of discrete keys are also population uniques on those keys. This is typically done using log-linear modeling on the keys. However, log-linear models can yield biased estimates of cell probabilities for sparse contingency tables with many zero counts, which often occurs in databases with many keys. This bias can result in unreliable estimates of probabilities of uniqueness and, hence, misrepresentations of disclosure risks. We propose an alternative to log-linear models for datasets with sparse keys based on a Bayesian version of grade of membership (GoM) models. We present a Bayesian GoM model for multinomial variables and offer a Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm for fitting the model. We evaluate the approach by treating data from a recent U.S. Census Bureau public use microdata sample as a population, taking simple random samples from that population, and benchmarking estimated probabilities of uniqueness against population values. Compared to log-linear models, GoM models provide more accurate estimates of the total number of uniques in the samples. Additionally, they offer record-level predictions of uniqueness that dominate those based on log-linear models. This article has online supplementary materials.

A regional cost index measures how much more or less it costs each school district to recruit and retain equivalent school personnel. School finance formulas in many statesincluding Alaska, Colorado, Florida, New York, Texas and Wyominguse regional cost indices to direct additional resources to school districts with higher labor costs, so that all districts can afford to hire comparable personnel. There are many strategies that can be used to estimate a regional cost index. This report presents a comparable wage index (CWI) for the state of Washington. The index is based on an analysis of data from the American Community Survey (ACS). The ACS, which is conducted annually by the U.S. Census Bureau, has replaced the decennial census as the primary source of demographic information about the U.S. population. The ACS CWI measures the extent to which the demographically and occupationally-adjusted earnings of non-educators differ from one part of Washington to another. As such, the ACS CWI offers a reliable measure of regional differences in the cost of hiring school district personnel. The ACS CWI indicates that labor costs are above the pupil-weighted state average in the Seattle and Tacoma metropolitan areas, and below the state average in all other parts of the state. The large differences in prevailing wage levels indicated by the ACS CWI mean that it costs more to operate a school district in Seattle and Tacoma than it does to operate a school district in Clarkston or Walla Walla. The ACS CWI indicates that in order to equalize school district resources, the base salary allocations for school districts in Seattle should be 9 percent higher than the state average, and the base salary allocations for school districts in non-metropolitan eastern Washington should be 14 percent lower than the state average.

Many cities in North America formed at obstacles to water navigation, where continued transport required overland hauling or portage. Portage sites attracted commerce and supporting services, and places where the falls provided water power attracted manufacturing during early industrialization. We examine portage sites in the U.S. South, Mid-Atlantic, and Midwest, including those on the fall line, a geomorphological feature in the southeastern United States marking the final rapids on rivers before the ocean. Although their original advantages have long since become obsolete, we document the continuing importance of historical portage sites. We interpret these results as path dependence and contrast explanations based on sunk costs interacting with decreasing versus increasing returns to scale.

Statistical agencies and other organizations that disseminate data are obligated to protect data subjects' confidentiality. For example, ill-intentioned individuals might link data subjects to records in other databases by matching on common characteristics (keys). Successful links are particularly problematic for data subjects with combinations of keys that are unique in the population. Hence, as part of their assessments of disclosure risks, many data stewards estimate the probabilities that sample uniques on sets of discrete keys are also population uniques on those keys. This is typically done using log-linear modeling on the keys. However, log-linear models can yield biased estimates of cell probabilities for sparse contingency tables with many zero counts, which often occurs in databases with many keys. This bias can result in unreliable estimates of probabilities of uniqueness and, hence, misrepresentations of disclosure risks. We propose an alternative to log-linear models for datasets with sparse keys based on a Bayesian version of grade of membership (GoM) models. We present a Bayesian GoM model for multinomial variables and offer an MCMC algorithm for fitting the model. We evaluate the approach by treating data from a recent US Census Bureau Public use microdata sample as a population, taking simple random samples from that population, and benchmarking estimated probabilities of uniqueness against population values. Compared to log-linear models, GoM models provide more accurate estimates of the total number of uniques in the samples. Additionally, they off er record-level predictions of uniqueness that dominate those based on log-linear models.

This paper provides the first comprehensive analysis of the causal effects of in-hospital voluntary paternity establishment (IHVPE) programs on paternity establishment rates and consequent family structure, behavior, and well-being. The empirical analysis is compatible with a conceptual framework in which fathers, who are heterogeneousin quality, must make transfers to mothers in exchange for rights to their children. However, because maternal utility is more sensitive to father quality in marriage thanoutside marriage, mothers trade off the benefits of paternal transfers with the costs of interacting with lower-than-desired quality partners in marriage. Following a decrease in the cost of paternity establishment, more mothers expect partial transfers outside marriage and thus choose to remain unmarried, thereby raising the marriage threshold in father quality. Using variation in the timing of IHVPE initiation across states and years, I show that IHVPE programs increase paternity establishment rates by 38percent, and reduce the likelihood of parental marriage post-childbirth. The decrease in marriage leads to positive selection into the samples of both married and unmarriedfathers, providing evidence for an increase in the marriage threshold in father quality. Accounting for selection out of marriage, there is some indication of a net reductionin paternal transfers: private health insurance provision for children declines, while maternal labor supply increases. On the whole, measures of child welfare such as total family income and child mental and physical health are unaffected, although childrens access to preventative care declines. I perform numerous robustness checks to support the validity of my findings.

Wages vary substantially from place to place and from occupation to occupation. In order to attract and retain a high quality workforce, Washington school districts must offer teachers a salary and benefits package that is competitive not only with teaching jobs in other states, but also with non-teaching jobs in the local community.This report examines the relative salaries and benefits of Washington educators using three different lenses. The first lens compares estimates of the prevailing salaries for educators with estimates of the prevailing salaries for non-educators. The second lens compares base teacher salaries in Washington with base teacher salaries in other states. The third and final lens examines the extent to which the fringe benefits teachers receive in the state of Washington are competitive with private-sector benefits. Whenever possible, the analysis has been conducted foreach school district, metropolitan area, and non-metropolitan labor market in the state.

In this paper we analyze the relationship between fertility decline, and changes in women’s lives, gender equality and gender relations in the Indian state of Tamil Nadu over the last 40-50 years. Using secondary quantitative analysis, published and unpublished quantitative and qualitative research, and interviews with experts, we examine how fertility decline in Tamil Nadu manifested in changes in the social and economic value of children, the shift from a focus on having a large quantity of children to investing more in fewer children, and the shrinkage of women’s lifespan devoted to childbearing. In turn, we explore how these changes have influenced specific domains of women’s lives, gender equality and gender relations. We also describe how Tamil Nadu’s history of progressive social activism, combined with economic poverty until recently, has influenced these dynamics. We find that, following fertility decline, women’s lives have improved in the realms of higher education, marriage spousal choice, and – to some extent – employment opportunities. Gender inequality also has decreased in education and employment. However, these changes have yet to lead to notable shifts in societal gender relations and norms, as manifested in marriage practices, dowry, and intimate partner violence.

Between the 1970s and 2000, the imprisonment rate in the United States increased by 700% (e.g., Beck and Harrison 2001). During the same time period, technological advancements and the decline of manufacturing production in urban areas eliminated many of the higher-paying blue collar job opportunities previously available to workers without college educations (e.g., Morris and Western 1999). The simultaneous large changes in imprisonment and labor markets are striking and the co-occurrence of these events suggests a possible connection between increasingly insecure employment conditions and rising imprisonment rates. Further, policies targeting the poor population (including criminal justice policies) became more punitive beginning in the 1970s. This is associated with a resurgence of Republican Party popularity and subsequent increase in imprisonment rates (e.g., Beckett and Sasson 2004). Furthermore, understanding the association between labor market conditions and imprisonment may be especially important for the criminal justice experiences of historically disadvantaged minority groups. Research has yet to consider how specific labor market shifts (e.g., restricted blue collar opportunities) may influence imprisonment rates. It is unknown whether such labor market dynamics may better explain the exposure of historically disadvantaged racial minorities to criminal justice system control. The current project examines the issues raised in the foregoing discussion using a unique dataset created for this purpose. Data at the local-level are compiled from two primary sources: the National Corrections Reporting Program (NCRP) (U.S. Bureau of Justice Statistics1989 and 1999), and Integrated Public Use Micro Sample (IPUMS) data (1990 and 2000) (Ruggles, Alexander, Genadek, Goeken, Schroeder, and Sobek 2010). In addition, this project 2 draws from two general election studies, “General Election Data for the United States” (Inter-university Consortium for Political and Social Research 1995) and American University Federal Elections Project data (Lublin and Voss 2001), and controls for criminal justice system characteristics using the Uniform Crime Reports (UCR) (U.S. Federal Bureau of Investigation 1988, 1989, 1998, 1999) and The Book of the States (1990 and 2000). Findings suggest that the local percentage of men without college education and restricted blue collar employment rates for unskilled workers are positively associated with prison admission rates within the corresponding local areas. In addition, the local percentage voting for Republican presidential candidates is positively associated with prison admission rates. Further, concentrated disadvantage among local African American populations is significantly and positively associated with prison admission rates for this group. Conversely, concentrated socioeconomic disadvantage among Whites is significantly and negatively associated with prison admission rates for African Americans. In addition, the local percentage of unskilled African Americans is significantly and positively associated with prison admission rates for African Americans and Whites. Finally, the percentage of unskilled workers employed in blue collar industries is significantly and negatively associated with African American and not significantly associated with White prison admission rates.

This research tests the ability of six metropolitan-level measures of housing costs to predict a benchmark housing cost measure based on Aten's area price level index. The first four measures are calculated with U.S. Census Data, the fifth is based on HUD Fair Market Rents, and the sixth is the housing portion of the ACCRA Index. In 25 large metropolitan areas, the fourth measure predicts 86 percent of the variation in the benchmark index in 1990 and 85 percent in 2000. The fifth measure performs nearly as well. The paper concludes both are promising measures of living costs.

Understanding how selection into employment has changed over time is crucial for interpreting the convergence of the measured gender wage gap. However, selection correctionmethods, which rely on questionable assumptions, have arrived at conflicting conclusions about selection. This paper directly measures patterns of selection of men and women using measures of pre-labor market cognitive ability (high school test scores) from longitudinal educational surveys. Using data from Project Talent, NLS-72, High School and Beyond, and NELS-88, we are able to follow four cohorts from high school until labor market entry andinvestigate how selection on ability changes over time and over the life cycle. We find that differential selection on the ability of female labor market participants is unlikely to explain the entire convergence of the measured gender wage gap and explore why our results differ from those of previous work.

This dissertation introduces economic theory, modern microeconometric methods, and new microdata sources to the study of the economic history of the Middle East. In particular, it examines an intriguing phenomenon in this field: the stylized fact that nonMuslim minorities are better off, on average, than the Muslim majority in many countries of the Middle East. The Introductory Chapter provides an overview of the research questions and the findings of the dissertation. It also describes the contribution of the dissertation to the general economics literature as well as to the field of economic history. Chapter 1 describes the digitization project of two nationally representative samples of the 1848 and 1868 Egyptian censuses from the original manuscripts at the National Archives of Egypt, and introduces an application of the data in the field of Middle Eastern economic history. These censuses are perhaps the earliest in the Middle East and among the earliest in any non-Western country to include information on all segments of society on a wide range of demographic and socioeconomic variables. Chapter 2 employs this new data source to examine the impact of state-led modernization on the socioeconomic differentials between religious groups. Over the nineteenth century, Egypt embarked on one of the world’s earliest state-led modernization programs in production, education, and the army. I examine the impact of this ambitious program on the long-standing occupational differentials and occupational and educational segregation between Muslims, Christians, and Jews. The major finding is that the modernization program did not attenuate the occupational gap or the occupational and educational segregation structure between religious groups, because it did not focus on providing access to skills to the unprivileged Muslim majority. Chapter 3 examines the impact of the transformation of elementary religious schools (kuttabs) into public modern primary schools in 1953 on the educational differentials between religious groups in Egypt. Using several new data sources, the individual-level census records from 1986, the village/urban quarter-level census records from 1897 to 1986, and the official schooling reports from 1907 to 1969, I find that the educational reform reduced the literacy gap between religious groups by the end of the twentieth century. Chapter 4 attempts to answer the question: Why are local non-Muslims minorities of the Middle East better off, on average, than the Muslim majority? It traces the origins of the phenomenon in Egypt to the imposition of the poll tax on non-Muslims upon the Islamic Conquest of the then-Coptic Christian Egypt in 640. The tax, which remained until 1855, led to the conversion of poor Copts to Islam to avoid paying the tax, and to the shrinking of Copts to a better off minority. Using new data sources that I digitized, including the 1848 and 1868 census records, I provide both econometric and qualitative evidence to support the hypothesis.

Though noncitizens can be, and frequently are, judged by juries, they are categorically excluded from serving on them. In this Note, I explore the implica- tions of this exclusion from demographic, functional, and doctrinal perspectives. The demographic portrait of noncitizens and minorities in the United States shows that the citizenship requirement for jury service results in the exclusion of significant numbers of residents in certain regions, and that this exclusion is highly skewed by race and ethnicity. The exclusion and resulting decrease in jury diversity has potentially negative effects on the jury’s decisionmaking and its in- stitutional legitimacy, and it excludes many residents who may be integrated into the community for many other purposes. Doctrinally, the exclusion of noncitizens from the jury might be challenged as unconstitutional on several grounds. Alt- hough some of the constitutional arguments are unlikely to be persuasive to the courts, I argue that there is room under the current doctrine for claims based on rights of the party before the jury—either under equal protection or the fair cross-section requirement of the Sixth Amendment—to succeed if properly framed.

Does the concentration of recent Latino immigrants into occupational linguistic nichesoccupations with large numbers of other Spanish speakersrestrict their wage growth? On the one hand, it is possible that Latino immigrants who are concentrated in jobs with large numbers of Spanish speakers may have less on-the-job exposure to English, which may isolate them socially and linguistically and limit their subsequent economic mobility. On the other hand, working in linguistic niches can also be beneficial for upwardly mobile immigrants if it allows them to gain a foothold in the United States while they improve their English skills and develop labor market experience. Using data from the 1996, 2001 and 2004 panels of the Survey of Income and Program Participation (SIPP), we test for the effect of working in occupational linguistic niches on wages and wage growth. The results show that while workers in linguistic niche occupations earn lower wages on average, they do not experience lower rates of wage growth over time. Moreover, we find that about 20 percent of workers who start the 4-year SIPP panel in linguistic niches experience occupational mobility that reduces the percentage of workers speaking Spanish in their occupation by over 10 percent over the course of the study, and these movers have higher levels of wage growth than other workers in the sample.

According to the Census Bureaus 2010 American Community Survey, the majors that give you the best chance of reaching the 1 percent are pre-med, economics, biochemistry, zoology and, yes, biology, in that order.