The Historical Population Register (HPR) organiz- es data that are used in health research, social scienc- es, history, geography and information science. Several countries are presently building longitudinal popula- tion registers. Thus, the Historical Samples Network recently had its launch meeting. In Norway, the HPR will complement the current Central Population Reg- ister from 1964. Our aim is to include as many as pos- sible of the 9.7 million persons who lived in Norway between 1801 and 1964. The National Archive, Norwe- gian Computing Center and the Norwegian Historical Data Centre currently build a register part from 1801 to 1815 to be launched at the Constitution Anniversa- ry in 1814. This article explains in particular the record linkage methods.

We present evidence from an ongoing field experiment in college coaching/ mentoring. The experiment is designed to ask whether coaching plus cash incentives provided to high school students late in their senior year have meaningful impacts on college going and persistence. For women and recent immigrants (male or female), we find large impacts on the decision to enroll in college and to remain in college. Intention to treat estimates are an increase in 12 percentage points in the college going rate (against a base rate of 50 percent) while treatment on the treated estimates are 24 percentage points. Offering cash bonuses alone without mentoring has no effect. There are no effects for non-immigrant men in the sample. The absence of effects for men is not explained by an interaction of the program with academic ability, work habits, or family and guidance support for college applications. However, differential returns to college can explain some or even all of the differences in treatment effects for men and women.

There have been struggles to find a reimbursement system that achieves a seemingly self-contradictory goal: providing high quality care while minimizing costs. This is exemplified by Medicare home health cares introduction of the 10 percent per-agency cap on outlier payments in 2010. This policy restricts total outlier payments for each home health agency to no more than 10 percent of that agencys total prospective payments from Medicare each year. While the intention of this cap is to control excessively increasing outlier payments, it can ultimately produce undesirable incentives. In essence, the 10 percent cap could penalize agencies that accepted and treated clinically complex, and thus costly patients. To address this issue, using the Medicare Claims and Provider of Services File from 2008 to 2010, this study focuses on Medicare home health patients with type 1 diabetes and examines how these patients were affected by the 10 percent cap. This study finds that the 10 percent cap decreased the intensity of home health service visits for type 1 diabetes patients dramatically. However, the 10 percent cap did not change type 1 diabetes patients likelihood of being dropped from home health care, hospitalized, transferred to another agency, or admitted to a nursing home. These findings seem to suggest that the 10 percent cap encouraged agencies to provide more efficient care because the reduction in the amount of care did not translate to a worse health outcome among type 1 diabetes patients. However, due to the limited availability of the data, I was able to examine only the first year after the implementation of the 10 percent cap. Thus, these findings are not conclusive given that it might take a relatively long time for a patients health status to be affected by a change in the amount of care.

Since China began its reform and opening-up policy in 1978, migration from China to the U.S. has grown significantly. Using 1990, 2000 censuses and a 2010 survey, I examine how immigrants from China fare in the U.S. labor market. Since 1990, relative wages of immigrants from China have been escalating in contrast to other immigrants. I show these widening gaps are largely explained by individuals endowments, mostly education. Not only the countrys immigrants had economically overtaken other immigrants in 2000, but its new cohorts outperformed the old ones since 1980. The evidence of soaring U.S.-earned degrees by immigrants from China can account for this relatively successful economic assimilation. In the meantime, economic outcomes of immigrants from LAC (Latin America and the Caribbean) have been worsening and the deterioration is substantially attributable to the sluggish rise in the educational attainment. The diverse experiences of immigrants from China and LAC show that education plays the major role in the process of economic assimilations in the U.S.

Introduction: Breast cancers are increasingly recognized as heterogeneous based on expression of receptors for estrogen (ER), progesterone (PR), and human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 (HER2). Triple-negative tumors (ER- /PR- /HER2- ) have been reported to be more common among younger women, but occurrence of the spectrum of breast cancer subtypes in adolescent and young adult (AYA) women aged between 15 and 39 years is otherwise poorly understood. Methods: Data regarding all 5,605 AYA breast cancers diagnosed in California during the period 2005 to 2009, including ER and PR status (referred to jointly as hormone receptor (HR) status) and HER2 status, was obtained from the population-based California Cancer Registry. Incidence rates were calculated by subtype (triple-negative; HR+ /HER2- ; HR+ /HER2+ ; HR- /HER2+ ), and logistic regression was used to evaluate differences in subtype characteristics by age group. Results: AYAs had higher proportions of HR+ /HER2+ , triple-negative and HR- /HER2+ breast cancer subtypes and higher proportions of patients of non-White race/ethnicity than did older women. AYAs also were more likely to be diagnosed with stage III/IV disease and high-grade tumors than were older women. Rates of HR+ /HER2- and triple-negative subtypes in AYAs varied substantially by race/ethnicity. Conclusions: The distribution of breast cancer subtypes among AYAs varies from that observed in older women, and varies further by race/ethnicity. Observed subtype distributions may explain the poorer breast cancer survival previously observed among AYAs.

This project investigates how home Internet usage has impacted womens labor supply. Recognizing the Internet affects how, when and where individuals do myriad activities, I show that the Internets role as an input in telework, job search, home production and leisure can have offsetting effects on labor supply in an economic model of time allocation. I examine the empirical relationship using individual level data on reported Internet use and labor market outcomes. Ordinary least squares estimates suggest a positive correlation between home Internet use and married womens labor force participation, however, these estimates may be biased by reverse causality. To isolate a causal link, I employ an instrumental variables strategy that exploits cross state variation in supply side constraints to high speed Internet access. Two stage least squares estimates indicate that married women who use the Internet at home are 18 percentage points more likely to participate in the labor force. This effect is concentrated among more educated women and those with school-aged children and there is no corresponding relationship found among men. Furthermore, consistent with the conceptual framework, the data suggest that telework, job search, and time saved in home production are viable mechanisms explaining the results. This work speaks to the labor market impact of technological progress in the home. It also suggests Internet use enables women to combine work and family more effectively and facilitates (re)entry into the labor force for those who opted out to have children.

While the link between geographic and social mobility has long been a cornerstone of sociological approaches to migration, recent research has cast doubt on the economic returns to internal U.S. migration. Moreover, there are important racial disparities in prevailing population movements, with blacks significantly more likely than whites to engage in southern migration, that remain poorlyunderstood. This paper, which draws on data from the 2000 census, reappraises the link between migration and social mobility by taking relative deprivation into consideration. We examine the association between migration, disaggregated according to region of origin and destination, and absoluteand relative measures of earnings and occupational prestige, separately by race. Our findings lend newinsight into the theoretical and stratification implications of growing racial disparities in southernmigration patterns; we show that while both blacks and whites who move from north to south generallyaverage lower absolute incomes than their sedentary northern peers, they enjoy significantly higherrelative social position. Moreover, the relative gains to migration are substantially larger for blacks than for whites. The opposite patterns obtain for south-north migration.

This paper explores the causes of the dramatic rise in total Medicare home health spending under the prospective payment system. In 2000, Medicare home health care introduced the prospective payment system to control the spending growth that had occurred under the fee-for-service payment system. However, total spending under the new system has continued to increase significantly. I examine the underlying forces behind the growth in the three factors that contributed to this spending increase: 1) the number of Medicare home health patients, 2) the number of episodes per patient, and 3) the payment amount per episode. Using the Medicare Claims and Provider of Services File from 1999 to 2009, I find strong empirical support that the prospective payment system provided unintended incentives for home health agencies to adjust their service provision patterns to increase profits. This led to an increase in all three factors, independent of the health needs of patients. In particular, the number of Medicare home health patients contributed the most to the total spending increase. In addition, many profit maximizing behaviors were most evident among for-profit home health agencies. Furthermore, the incentives built into the prospective payment system attracted to the market a substantial number of for-profit agencies. These new agencies pursued profitable home health provision patterns more aggressively than agencies established prior to the prospective payment system. Overall, the increase in the for-profit market share accounts for about one-third of the increase in total Medicare spending between 2001 and 2009.

There has been a striking increase in American idiosyncratic labor income volatility since 1970, with little attention paid to the effects on families. The formation and dissolution of the typical American family has changed substantially, however, with a notable decline/delay of marriage and, since 1980, declining divorce rates. Furthermore, the elderly are divorcing more. This paper demonstrates a quantitatively important link between income volatility and the changing family. Marriage typically involves children, a large, persistent cost, which causes people to dislike risk; volatility therefore causes less marriage. This effect dominates the increased insurance value of marriage that arises because shocks to income are imperfectly correlated between spouses. Once a couples has married, however, the rising insurance value of marriage also leads to a decline in divorce. On the other hand, the elderly are either retired or near retirement and have grown children, and thus are less susceptible to the effects of volatility. Elderly divorce rises as younger people delay divorce. The model qualitatively matches observed family changes over time, and quantitatively accounts for up to a third of the data.

As immigrants adapt to their new country, they experience both increased access to homeownership and an increase in independent household formation. This paper examines residential assimilation, as measured by homeownership and household formation, among five young immigrant cohorts in Los Angeles and Toronto over a five-year period in the early 2000s. Results show that while differences between groups are evident already at the beginning of the study period, residential assimilation occurs for all groups over time, relative to the native-born. This assimilation, however, seems to occur differently by group; the Chinese, for example, attain high homeownership rates by creating relatively few households, whereas black immigrants form many more households but much lower homeownership rates, over time. Comparing across countries, immigrants consistently have lower rates of household formation and mostly higher homeownership levels in Toronto than they do in Los Angeles.

A kvantitatív történeti demográfiai kutatások világszerte egyre inkább a nominatív mikroadatok elemzésére épülnek. Ezt igazolhatják az elmúlt néhány évtized erőfeszíté- sei számos európai és tengerentúli országban, amelyek során nagy számítógépes adat- bázisok épültek történeti népszámlálások vagy anyakönyvek név szerinti adataiból (Faragó 2003. 319–321). Az irányváltás részben a korábbi makrokutatások kifulladásá- ból, azok korlátainak felismeréséből ered. Míg makroadatok nem állnak kellő részletes- séggel a rendelkezésünkre, és a valódi ok-okozati kapcsolatok helyett a statisztikai elemzési módszerek inkább a különböző tényezők együttmozgását tudják kimutatni, addig a különböző, egymásra hatást gyakorló tényezők az egyének szintjén (ahol a demográfiai viselkedést alakító döntések születnek) többnyire mérhetőek, az individuá- lis viselkedést összetett modellek tesztelésével és modern elemzési technikák alkalma- zásával jobban fel lehet tárni. A kutatás súlypontja az individuális szint és a longitudiná- lis elemzés felé tolódott, az időbeli változás elemzése mellett a területi összehasonlítás is fontos szemponttá vált. A demográfiai változást és különbségeket a lehető legtelje- sebb kontextusukban igyekeznek megérteni, és ehhez leggyakrabban az eseménytörté- neti elemzés (event history analysis) módszerét használják. A hagyományos családrekonstitúciós módszert az elemzésbe bevont források gazdagságával, az egyéni viselkedés modellezésével, a változók közötti kereszthatások kiszűrésével haladják 2 meg. A mikrodemográfiai adatok elemzésének szükséges előfeltételei az individuális szintű adatokat tartalmazó adatbázisok. A fentiek értelmében a modern demográfiai elemzést lehetővé tevő adatbázisok anyakönyvekre, népességregiszterekre és/vagy ismétlődő népszámlálások adataira épülnek. Ezek szerencsés esetben együtt képesek információt szolgáltatni az egyéneket érintő demográfiai eseményekről és mindazokról az egyéni, háztartási vagy közösségi szintű körülményekről (pl. nem, kor, családi álla-

This project investigates how changes in Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA)-level housing prices affect household fertility decisions. Recognizing that housing is amajor cost associated with child rearing, and assuming that children are normal goods, we hypothesize that an increase in real estate prices will have a negative price effecton current period fertility. This applies to both potential first-time homeowners and current homeowners who might upgrade to a bigger house with the addition of a child.On the other hand, for current homeowners, an increase in MSA-level house prices will increase home equity, leading to a positive effect on birth rates. Controlling forMSA fixed effects, trends, and time-varying conditions, our analysis finds that indeed, short-term increases in house prices lead to a decline in births among non-owners anda net increase among owners. Our estimates suggest that a $10,000 increase in house prices leads to a 2.1 percent increase in births among home owners, and a 0.4 percentdecrease among non-owners. At the mean U.S. home ownership rate, our estimates imply that the net effect of a $10,000 increase in house prices is a 0.8 percent increase in births. Given underlying differences in home ownership rates, the predicted net effect of house price changes varies across demographic groups. Our paper providesevidence that homeowners use some of their increased housing wealth, coming from increases in local area house prices, to fund their childbearing goals. In addition, wefind that changes in house prices exert a larger effect on current period birth rates than do changes in unemployment rates.

While many economic studies have addressed the static behavior of for-profit and non-profit health care providers competing with each other in markets, few have looked at how behavior changes over time. Building on the existing economic theory of for-profit and non-profit behavior in competition, I propose three mechanisms that explain how behavior changes over time. First, health care providers continue to enter the market if they perceive opportunities for high-profit margins, and those new entrants strategically pursue profit-maximizing service provision patterns more aggressively than incumbents. Second, aggressive profit-seeking behaviors among new entrants encourage neighboring incumbents to imitate new entrants behaviors. Third, existing, chain-affiliated health care providers learn profit-seeking behaviors from others in the chain. In particular, the second and third mechanisms suggest that health care providers learn profit-seeking behaviors from each other over time. I then test these three mechanisms using data on home health agencies that operated under the Medicare prospective payment system and find that the proposed mechanisms explain the changes in behaviors of for-profit and non-profit home health agencies over time.

What explains geographic polarization, the tendency of Americans to live near fellow partisans? Existing theories suggest that segregation of all kinds can be explained by the aggregate exercise of individual preferences for homogeneity, or by discriminatory public policies that limit residential choice. While both of these factors explain sorting, this article considers an alternative explanation: that public policies that facilitate mobility make partisan geographic sorting easier and contribute to geographic polarization. I test this theory by examining the political consequences of the largest transportation program in American history: the Interstate Highway System. Combining data from a federal highway construction database with county-level presidential election results, I use matching and regression to demonstrate that suburban counties with Interstates became more Republican than they would have been otherwise. I then show that metropolitan areas with greater Interstate density became more geographically polarized than comparable areas with fewer Interstates. The observed effects are especially strong in the South, where highways opened rural areas to industrialization and suburbanization. These findings demonstrate that policies can change politics not only by influencing individual behavior, but also by influencing citizens geographic distribution.

During the US recession of 200709, overall health care spending growth fell, but Medicare spending growth increased. Using state-level data from the period 19912009, we show that these divergent trends were also observed within states. Furthermore, increases in state unemployment rates were associated with higher Medicare spending per capita and increased hospital use by Medicare beneficiaries. For example, a one-percentage-point point rise in the unemployment rate was associated with a $40 (0.7 percent) increase in Medicare spending per capita. Our results suggest that economic downturns contribute to Medicare spending and use. One of many possible explanations may be that health care providers have greater capacity, inclination, and financial incentive to treat Medicare patients during recessions as a result of slackening demand from the non-Medicare population.

In the paper, we provide a thorough analysis of methods for providing data anonymity, and pay primary attention to the problems of providing group anonymity. We also propose a method for providing data group anonymity within a dataset containing fuzzy and linguistic information using wavelet transforms.

The standard revealed-preference estimate of a city’s quality of life is proportional to that city’s cost-of-living relative to its wage-level. Adjusting estimates to account for federal taxes, nonhousing costs, and non-labor income produces more plausible quality-of-life estimates than in the previous literature. Unlike previous estimates, adjusted quality-of-life measures successfully predict how housing costs rise with wage levels, are positively correlated with popular “livability” rankings and stated preferences, and do not decrease with city size. Mild seasons, sunshine, hills, and coastal proximity account for most inter-metropolitan quality-of-life differences. Amendments to quality-of-life measures for labor-market disequilibrium and household heterogeneity provide additional insights.

Immigrants continue to settle in metropolitan areas across the United States and bring significant changes to various urban labor markets. The current Great Recession which officially started in December 2007 and ended in June 2009 (National Bureau of Economic Research, 2010) further intensified the debate on immigration. It is important to understand how immigrants fared through this economic downturn and their evolving employment patterns within a diversity of metropolitan areas. Using American Community Survey (ACS) data for 2007 and 2009, this paper traces the employment outcomes of immigrants compared to nativeborn workers before and after the recession across the 100 largest metropolitan areas. Distinctions are made between Asian immigrants and Latino immigrants. Regression analysis further tests the effect of individual human capital characteristics and metropolitan economic, demographic, and policy contexts on immigrant’s likelihood of securing employment during this time period.

We study the effect of race on economic outcomes using unique data from the first half of the twentieth century, a period in which skin color was explicitly coded in population censuses as White, Black, or Mulatto.We construct a panel of siblings by digitizing and matching records across the 1910 and 1940 censuses and identifying all 12,000 African-American families in which enumerators classified some children as light-skinned (Mulatto) and others as dark-skinned (Black). Siblings coded Mulatto when they were children (in 1910) earned similar wages as adults (in 1940) relative to their Black siblings. This within-family earnings difference is substantially lower than the Black-Mulatto earnings difference in the general population, suggesting that skin color in itself played only a small role in the racial earnings gap. To explore the role of the more social aspect that might be associated with being Black, we then focus on individuals who passed for White, an important social phenomenon at the time. To do so, we identify individuals coded Mulatto as children but White as adults. Passing for White meant that individuals changed their racial affiliation by changing their social ties, while skin color remained unchanged. To partially disentangle the selection into passing, we compare Mulattoes who passed with their siblings who did not, thereby removing selection across families from the analysis. Passing was associated with substantially higher earnings, suggesting that race in its social form could have significant consequences for economic outcomes. We discuss how our findings shed light on the roles of discrimination and identity in driving economic outcomes.