The purpose of this paper is to study the causes, welfare effects, and policy implications of the decline of the Rust Belt. I develop a dynamic spatial equilibrium model which consists of a multi-region, multi-sector economy comprised of overlapping generations of heterogeneous individuals. Using several data sets that cover the time period from 1960--2010, I estimate the structural parameters of the model based on a simulated method of moments estimator. The empirical findings suggest that goods-producing firms located in the Rust Belt had a 13 percent relative productivity advantage in 1960 compared to the rest of the U.S., which shrank to approximately 3 percent by the end of the sample period in 2010. As a consequence, a large fraction of the decline of the Rust Belt can be attributed to the reduction in its location-specific advantage in the goods-producing sector. The transition of the U.S. economy to a service sector economy is a less significant factor. The decline of the Rust Belt generated significant differences in welfare between individuals residing in the Rust Belt and those residing in other areas, particularly for the less educated. Policy experiments show that the inequality in welfare can be significantly reduced by subsidizing labor costs in the Rust Belt or reducing mobility costs.

examine the effect of English language proficiency on the occupational choices of childhood immigrants into the United States. In particular, I focus on the annual earnings and skills composition associated with immigrants' chosen occupations. Following Bleakley and Chin (2004; 2010), I use an instrumental variables approach that exploits young children's superior language acquisition abilities to estimate the causal effect of English language skills on immigrants' choice of occupation. In addition, I employ another instrument, based on Chiswick and Miller (2004), that accounts for the variation in English language acquisition difficulty among native speakers of other languages. I find that higher proficiency allows immigrants to work in more lucrative occupations. In addition, a better grasp of the English language leads immigrants to choose occupations in which communication skills -- active listening, negotiation, persuasion, reading comprehension, speaking, and writing -- are more important. These findings suggest that occupational choice is an important additional channel through which immigrants with a good command of the English language achieve better labor market outcomes.

This paper focuses on a thought experiment in which the authors propose an encoding system not unlike the contextual markup of prosopographies or gazetteers using TIE P5 that could be used to capture the particular financial semantics involves in HFRs. This possible system is expressed as a TEI "extension" customization, and it flexible enough to encode the subgenre of financial records called "double-entry accounts", a bookkeeping method for recording transfers of goods or services in exchange for currency or credit. Real-world markup examples are from the Wheaton College Digital History Project. A preliminary version of the ODD is currently available on Encoding Historical Financial Records.

This dissertation is comprised of three chapters tied together under the broad umbrella of economic history. The first chapter examines the effect of access to schooling on black crime in this historic period. I use the construction of 5,000 new schools in the US south, funded by northern philanthropist Julius Rosenwald between 1913 and 1932, as a quasi-natural experiment which increased the educational attainment of southern black students. I match a sample of male prisoners and non-prisoners from the 1920-1940 Censuses backwards to their birth families in previous Census waves. I find that one year of access to a Rosenwald school decreased the probability of being a prisoner by 0.04-0.10 percentage points (10-15 percent of the mean). The second chapter examines immigrant assimilation in the early 20th century US. During the Age of Mass Migration (1850-1913), the US maintained an open border and absorbed 30 million European immigrants. In newly-assembled panel data, we show that . . .

We offer an integrated explanation and empirical analysis of the polarization of U.S. employment and wages between 1980 and 2005, and the concurrent growth of low skill service occupations. We attribute polarization to the interaction between consumer preferences, which favor variety over specialization, and the falling cost of automating routine, codifiable job tasks. Applying a spatial equilibrium model, we derive, test, and confirm four implications of this hypothesis. Local labor markets that were specialized in routine activities differentially adopted information technology, reallocated low skill labor into service occupations (employment polarization), experienced earnings growth at the tails of the distribution (wage polarization), and received inflows of skilled labor.

This paper examines the current trends in the collective bargaining in the meat and poultry industry, which are the direct consequence of the collapse of the national bargaining structure in the American meat industry during the 1980s driven by the industry's restructuring that lead to the return to plant level collective bargaining in beef, pork, and poultry slaughter and processing. We argue that the driving force behind the collapse and restructuring was the substitution of chicken for beef in the American diet. The relatively high price of beef was no longer sustainable when it came into competition with poultry products that were less costly, healthier, more convenient, and more malleable to further processing. The substitution of chicken for beef, put wages back into competition as consumers redefined market boundaries. Poultry processors were nonunion, paying low wages, and had developed a high productivity growth production system, known as the broiler complex. They were located in the union hostile rural South and had grown their businesses using African American labor in the Southern Black Belt.

Immigration authorities have seldom collected data on the out-migration of the foreign-born. As a consequence, several indirect approaches have been proposed to measure and study out-migration. This paper adds to the literature by using official statistics that directly identify the out-migration by demographic and socio-economic characteristics. Using time series and panel methods on the composition of U.S. out-migration between 1908 and 1957, the paper asks two questions. First, how did the out-migrants compare with in-migrants and permanent settlers? Second, did the economic and political events of the 1900s have any impact on the composition of this outflow? Results show that the out-migrants were primarily unskilled workers, but selection has become more positive over time. The economic and political shocks of the first half of the 20th century impacted the composition of the outflow, however, the more restrictive immigration policies have been associated primarily with longer stays. These findings complements the results based on indirect measures of out-migration, and are interestingly in line with analyses of out-migrant selectivity and impact of border controls on out-migrant behavior in later periods.

Focusing on Latinas, we investigated whether maternal occupations during pregnancy increase term low birth weight (TLBW) (less than 2500 g; 37 weeks or more).

Using the Los Angeles Family and Neighborhood Survey (L.A. FANS), detailed individual-level data on shopping location, store name, and body mass index are analyzed to assess relationships between body mass index and food store types. The analysis groups similar store brands to create unique food store types, providing finer discrimination than industrial classification or annual sales volume. Seven food store types are created: English-language major supermarket chains, discount food stores with "less", "save", or "bargain" in the name, Spanish-language name supermarkets or grocery stores, specialty stores defined as having fewer locations, smaller format, specific product focus, and/or limited product inventory, and independent, small, and bulk food stores. Documentation within the dataset of shopping locations, home locations, and car ownership allow strict control for distance and transportation. Accounting for these and other individual and neighborhood characteristics using multivariate regression models, body mass index is significantly lower in people who shop in specialty and Spanish-language name food store types compared to major chain food store types in higher poverty neighborhoods. Additional analysis indicates that reported supermarket shopping rates are higher than expected based on the prevalence of supermarkets in home Census tracts. Absence of neighborhood supermarkets (in home Census tracts) is a common state among respondents across all poverty strata, although more common in very poor tracts. In a subgroup of non-movers over a six-year period, opening and closing of stores is associated with change in shopped store type. Because the main results are cross-sectional, causal inference is difficult. Store types may influence body mass index, or individuals may have unobserved characteristics, which explain the association between store types and body mass index. Further research is needed to assess the direction of association. However, these results suggest specific store types should be the focus of policy and research rather than broader categories defined by sales volume or industrial classification. Absence of supermarkets may be an insufficient tool to characterize shopping behavior. Store opening and closing may stimulate change in store type preferences, but whether this change in store type is associated with change in health behaviors or health outcomes is unknown.

This study assessed the actual and perceived efficacy of TAFE as implemented across public schools in Texas with Latino populations. The graduation rates of students were analyzed to assess whether there were significant differences in graduation rates between schools implementing the program and those not implementing the program across gender and ethnicity. Surveys were administered to past and present personnel associated with TAFE to ascertain their perceptions on the program. A significant main effect for Latinos was found at TAFE schools during the five year period of the study. Survey responses were isolated to differentiate between Latino responses and those of the general population. Responses varied in consistency between Latino respondents and the overall population of respondents. In general, respondents credited the program for the higher graduation rates of Latinos and their motivation to attend college which are future indicators of success. However, the respondents were undecided as to TAFE's influence to foster teaching vocations but believe it impacts teacher retention. Respondents were also undecided, and a considerable percentage of them had a negative opinion that TAFE motivated them to become or want to become educational administrators. Finally, respondents endorsed the idea of recommending TAFE to high school students and to schools/districts for implementation.

We present a hedonic framework to estimate U.S. households' preferences over local climates, using detailed weather and 2000 Census data. We find that Americans favor an average daily temperature of 65 degrees Fahrenheit, will pay more on the margin to avoid excess heat than cold, and are not substantially more averse to extremes than to temperatures that are merely uncomfortable. These preferences vary by location due to sorting or adaptation. Changes in climate amenities under business-as- usual predictions imply annual welfare losses of 1 to 3 percent of income by 2100, holding technology and preferences constant.

Although national authorities declared an end to the Great Recession almost four years ago, the economic downturn has continued to have repercussions in Wisconsin and beyond. Wisconsin had almost zero net job creation in 2011 and 2012. And so, Wisconsin’s market income poverty rate steadily rose from 21.3 to 25.2 percent between 2008 and 2011, suggesting that the performance of the Wisconsin economy in terms of jobs and earnings worsened over this period. The official poverty statistics provided by the U.S. Census Bureau also suggest that poverty in the state increased from 2008 to 2011, rising from 10.2 to 13.3 percent. This indicates that Wisconsin residents generally had lower pre-tax but post-transfer cash resources. But when we measure with our Wisconsin Poverty Measure (WPM), we find that state poverty has fallen between 2008 and 2011, despite a modest increase from 2010 to 2011 from 10.3 to 10.7 percent, and remained about 2.6 percentage points below the official rate. Behind this story is the impact of tax-related provisions and near-cash benefits from programs that government officials augmented to offset increased economic hardship due to the recession. The official poverty measure considers only pre-tax cash income as a resource, failing to fully capture the effects of government efforts to stimulate the economy and ease economic adversity caused by the recession. Researchers at the Institute for Research on Poverty (IRP) developed the WPM, now in its fourth year, to account for the needs and resources of Wisconsin families while taking the antipoverty impact of policies into account. The WPM considers cash resources, but also tax credits and noncash benefits, as well as costs like child care and health care that reduce available resources, in determining poverty status. For the third year in a row, the WPM tells a different story than the Census Bureau’s official poverty statistics. In last year’s Wisconsin Poverty Report, we found a decline in poverty between 2009 and 2010 under the WPM, mainly because the drop in families’ earnings and cash income was offset by tax credits and food assistance benefits, which saw major increases in funding through 2009’s American Recovery and Reinvestment Act (ARRA). In this Wisconsin Poverty Report, we reveal that tax credits played a large role in fighting poverty in 2011, though down from 2010 as ARRA tax provisions phased out and the Wisconsin state EITC was reduced. As a result, despite continued effectiveness of nutrition assistance benefits during 2011, there was a modest increase in the number of individuals and families living in poverty in 2011. Additional major findings of our report also demonstrate a diversified experience of poverty in Wisconsin following the onset of the recession. The increase in poverty for children is larger than the overall increases under the official measure and the WPM, where it climbed from 10.8 to 12.2 percent between 2010 and 2011. When we examine how specific noncash benefits, tax-related provisions, and medical and work-related expenses affect poverty, we find again that refundable tax credits had a smaller impact in reducing child poverty in 2011 than in 2010. We also noted that out-of-pocket medical expenses, while less of a burden in 2011 compared to earlier years, continued to push some low-income elderly persons into poverty, suggesting the importance of support for medical care for this population. We also examine poverty rates across regions within the state, revealing deep poverty in some areas, especially central Milwaukee. Our key finding and our answer to the question, ‘Is the safety net still working in Wisconsin?’ is “yes”. The social safety net provided a buffer against poverty during the recession, though its impact lessened in 2011 due to policy changes at the state and federal levels. We believe that the long-term solution to poverty is a secure job that pays well, not an indefinite income support program. But, as this report shows, in times of need, a safety net that enhances low earnings for families with children, puts food on the table, and encourages self-reliance—as Wisconsin’s safety net does—makes a big difference in combatting market-driven poverty. But as this year’s report suggests, cuts in that safety net without substantial improvement in the underlying economy can produce an increase in poverty as measured by the WPM.

This article shows how maintaining social relationships can be a daily hassle that has implications for the stress process, depending on how often individuals transition, or switch, between various social roles and social settings throughout the day. I use nationally representative time-diary data on 7,662 respondents from the 2010 American Time Use Survey to measure individual rates of switching behavior and to examine how it relates to perceived stress. Regression analysis shows that net of how many social roles they play and settings they visit on a given day, individuals who switch more frequently between these elements report higher levels of stress. This finding holds for women but not men, suggesting that switching dynamics are disproportionately stressful for women. I close by discussing the implications of the findings for research on gender and health.

This paper provides new evidence that Medicaid's introduction reduced mortality rates among nonwhite infants and children in the 1960s and 1970s. Medicaid required states to cover all cash welfare recipients, which induced substantial cross-state variation in the share of children immediately eligible for the program. Before Medicaid, higher- and lower eligibility states had similar public insurance use and child mortality rates. At implementation, Medicaid eligibility for nonwhite children ranged across states from 5 to 33 percent and, for white children, from 0.5 to 10 percent. After Medicaid implementation, public insurance utilization increased and mortality fell more rapidly among nonwhite children and infants in high-Medicaid-eligibility states. My estimates suggest that the introduction of Medicaid can account for eight percent of the decline in nonwhite child mortality and fifteen percent of the reduction in the racial gap in child mortality between 1965 and 1980.

Assuming that certain religious beliefs, as a proxy for ones cultural background, may inhibit wealth accumulation, individual savings behavior in the USA with its vital religious market is examined. Using data from the US Panel Study of Income Dynamics (PSID), I found notable differences in saving rates and in the amount saved between religious and non-religious individuals as well as across religious groups. However, neither the fixed-effects approach nor the instrumental variables estimation, where the religious composition of the region of ancestry origin is used as an instrument for individual religious belief, support the findings from cross-sectional analysis. The longitudinal analysis yields no effect of religious belief on savings choices. Frequent religious church attendance, however, positively affects savings decisions. Further, based on the exogenous variation in religious composition of ancestry region, the instrumental variables approach shows that religious affiliation determines the binary savings decision negatively. However, the instrument is not valid for the continuous savings decision.

We present a hedonic framework to estimate U.S. households’ preferences over local climates, using detailed weather and 2000 Census data. We find that Americans favor an average daily temperature of 65 degrees Fahrenheit, will pay more on the margin to avoid excess heat than cold, and are not substantially more averse to extremes than to temperatures that are merely uncomfortable. These preferences vary by location due to sorting or adaptation. Changes in climate amenities under business-as-usual predictions imply annual welfare losses of 1 to 3 percent of income by 2100, holding technology and preferences constant.

One way that Massachusetts helps its poorest children is by providing direct cash assistance through a program known as TAFDC, or Transitional Aid to Families with Dependent Children. Over time, the value of the cash grant provided through TAFDC has not kept pace with inflation. In fact, since 1989, it has lost over 40 percent of its value. TAFDC affords a baseline safety net of financial support for low-income families with children. Program participants receive a cash grant, and may also receive job training and assistance, education support, and child care to help parents find and keep jobs. In recent years, even as the value of the cash assistance has shrunk, so too has the availability of training and education assistance. (See the MassBudget Children's Budget.) Apart from those who are disabled or caring for a disabled child, parents must meet basic work or training requirements to receive cash assistance via TAFDC, and they are only eligible for a limited period of time.

Studies of trends in disability prevalence focus on observed declines in disability prevalence among the population of retirement age or elderly adults, but fail to address whether this trend has also affected U.S. children and adolescents. The goals of this study are to 1) provide new evidence on trends in disability among children between the ages of 6 and 17; and 2) test potential explanations for the observed trends in youth disability. Using a pooled sample of the 1998-2011 National Health Interview Surveys, I first present annual population estimates of childhood disability prevalence over the 1998-2011 time period. I then decompose these trends into the parts attributable to changes in the sociodemographic composition of youths and changes in the relationship between sociodemographic characteristics and the probability of disability.