Does population diversity matter for economic development in the long run? Is there a different impact of diversity across time? This paper traces the short-, medium- and long-term economic impact of population diversity resulting from the big migration waves of the late nineteenth and early twentieth centuries to the United States (US). Using census data from 1880, 1900 and 1910, the settlement pattern of migrants across the counties of the 48 US continental states is tracked in order to construct measures of population fractionalization and polarization at county level. Factors which may have influenced both the individual settlement decision at the time of migration and county-level economic development in recent years are controlled for. The results of the analysis show that high levels of population fractionalization have a strong and positive influence on economic development in the short, medium and long run. High levels of polarization, by contrast, undermine development. Despite a stronger effect on income levels in the first 30 years, we find these relationships to be extremely long lasting: counties with a more heterogeneous population composition over 130 years ago are significantly richer today, whereas counties that were strongly polarized at the time of the migration waves have endured persistent negative economic effects.

Illegal immigration along the Southwest border has dropped to levels last seen during the 1970s, yet the focus on stopping it has reached unprecedented intensity, culminating in February in a national emergency declaration. Meanwhile, the unauthorized immigrant population has been falling for at least a decade, and Mexico is no longer the source of most unauthorized immigrants. Over half of new unauthorized immigrants are visa overstayers who entered legally. A historically high number of people attempting to enter along the Southwest border are asylum seekers—unaccompanied minors and families from Central America. Both of these groups are unlikely to be deterred by tougher border enforcement. Meanwhile, the number of unauthorized immigrant workers has been falling, leading to heightened employer interest in using the H-2A and H-2B visa programs to hire temporary foreign workers. However, those programs are unlikely to fully meet employer demand for less-skilled workers. This demand will only grow as the number of less-educated US-born workers falls. Instead of building a wall, the US needs to build programs that ensure enough workers are available.

This paper studies the impact of payday loan borrowing on the financial well-being of Social Security (SS) income and Supplemental Security Income (SSI) receivers. Specifically, it focuses on the borrowing behaviors of low-wealth, Old-Age, Survivors, Disability Insurance program (OASDI) and SSI beneficiaries who rely on alternative financial services (AFS), such as payday lending. A significant share of low-income and low-wealth population experience financial hardship and pay excessive fees and interest when they borrow from alternative financial service providers. In 2009 17 percent of households in the U.S. were considered under-banked because they both maintained bank accounts and relied on AFS (FDIC 2009). Using data from the Current Population Survey (CPS) unbanked and under-banked supplements and Survey of Consumer Finances (SCF), this research investigates the following research questions: 1) Are Social Security Administration (SSA) beneficiaries more likely to use payday loans than non-SSA recipients? 2) How does payday loan use vary by income, age, and education among SSA beneficiaries? 3) How does receiving income from SSA affect payday loan use? Our findings suggest that there is little or no demographic variation between SSA beneficiaries and non-SSA beneficiaries who use payday loans. However, being an SSA beneficiary increases the likelihood of receiving payday loans. Lower-income SSA beneficiaries use payday loans more intensively. Borrowing behaviors of lower-income SSA beneficiaries, especially from AFS, are understudied in the literature. This paper attempts to fill this gap.

Mexicans are the largest immigrant group in the United States of America (USA) and are ageing rapidly. Few studies investigate whether older immigrants return to Mexico for different reasons than younger immigrants. Using the Mexican Health and Aging Study (N = 952), we examine whether Mexican immigrants in the USA who returned to Mexico at age 50 and older report different reasons for returning than those who returned at younger ages. Few immigrants (regardless of age) returned for economic reasons. The most commonly reported reason for returning for both groups was missing family. However, the odds of selecting missing family over illness as their main reason for returning were lower for older immigrants than younger immigrants after controlling for the duration of their stay in the USA and other socio-demographic factors (odds ratio (OR) = 0.27; 95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.11, 0.68). Results indicate that older immigrants were just as likely to report returning due to economic reasons and migration problems as they were to report returning because of illness (OR = 0.57, 95% CI = 0.15, 2.21; OR = 0.41, 95% CI = 0.12, 1.43). While existing research shows that older immigrants in the USA typically experience fewer migration problems and are often more economically stable than younger immigrants, our research suggests this may be entirely due to the duration of their stay in the USA.

We examined broad-scale patterns in family forest owners’ decisions to use estate planning and conservation tools, and participate in preferential tax programs in eight forested landscapes of the United States. We focused our analyses on patterns across regions and states, and scrutinized the impacts of adding regional and state fixed effects to discrete choice models of owner behaviors. We used chi-square testing and binary discrete choice models to analyze mail-survey responses collected from landowners. Our exploratory research revealed distinct broad-scale patterns by owner decision, with the strongest evidence of state and regional variation in owner participation in preferential tax programs and some evidence of such variation in decisions to use wills and trusts. In contrast, we detected no such differences when examining decision-making about conservation easements across regions or states. Our findings in support of state and regional effects suggest forested landscape contexts beyond owner and parcel characteristics matter and could potentially drive differences in behaviors and forest outcomes. Measures of regional and state fixed effects can provide useful information about contextual differences across forested landscapes, such as differences in public programs and engagement aimed at owners. They can also inform the appropriateness of transferring insights across landscapes. Building on these findings, we share guidance for future data collection and research, including how improved monitoring and greater consideration of contextual factors beyond individual and ownership characteristics could enhance understanding of family forest owner decision-making and landscape change.

Natural disasters are predicted to become more severe with climate change. Research on impacts of natural disasters on housing markets is mostly limited to hedonic property studies and does not consider impacts on home ownership. Combining historical data on natural disasters in the US with household data, we use a di§erencesin-di§erences approach to estimate the e§ects of natural disasters on home ownership rates. Results indicate a three to Öve percentage point decrease in the home ownership rate among households that migrate to areas hit by severe natural disasters. An updating of risk priors given additional information regarding recent disasters may be responsible for such decreases. These results improve our understanding of how natural disasters impact housing markets and inform urban policy responses to climate change.

We explore cross-country differences in the transition to adulthood between China, Germany, and the USA. Using large-scale panel studies, we examine the timing of leaving the parental home, first marriage and first parenthood. For those born between 1933 and 1988, we observe a delay in the timing of first marriage in all three societies. But the delay is steeper in the USA than in Germany and China. The age at first childbirth is increasing in all three countries. By age 30, most individuals in China have married their first partner and become parents, whereas in the USA and Germany less than half of the population have experienced one of these events. There are large differences in educational and employment trajectories between the urban and rural populations in China, less so in the USA, whereas almost no differences are observed in Germany. The three countries are alike in the proportion of individuals who have left the parental home by age 30. In all three countries, individuals without tertiary qual...

This paper exploits state and time variations in the U.S. Current Population Survey for the years 1983-2016 to examine the extent to which job polarization can account for the widening gap in labour force participation rates by education. The use of the Bartik shift-share instrument is a new method in the US literature used to isolate exogenous shocks to labour demand for middle-skill workers. Estimation by 2SLS suggests that the decline in the employment share of middle-skill occupations has had an economically and statistically significant effect on the labour force participation differential by education. In fact, the econometric evidence indicates that much of the observed divergence in participation rates since 1983 can be accounted for by job polarization. On the other hand, growth in alternative job sectors could only marginally compensate for those effects.

In utero exposure to maternal infection during the prenatal period may not only have an effect on infant health, it may have lasting effects on health over the life course. Infectious pandemics offer one vantage point to isolate the effects of in utero exposure to maternal infection on adult morbidity and mortality, the developmental origins of adult health and disease. According to fetal origins theory (Barker 1995), in utero exposure to nutritional deprivation and, potentially, infection increases the chances of developing chronic health conditions in adulthood. Recent evidence lends weight to this theory, with in utero exposure to the 1918 pandemic linked to increased rates of physical disability, cardiovascular problems, cancer, and metabolic disorders (Almond 2006; Almond and Mazumder 2005; Bengtsson and Helgertz 2015; Mazumder et al. 2010). In spite of the growing evidence that in utero exposure to nutritional deprivation and maternal infection impact adult morbidity, we know . . .

One of the bedrock principles of American constitutional jurisprudence is its commitment to provide heightened scrutiny to laws that distinguish amongst us on the basis of certain immutable traits. But race-the very trait that has historically received the most searching form of scrutiny under modern equal-protection doctrine-is far more fluid than the law has traditionally recognized. This Article examines the mutability of race-both through its social and legal construction-and the resulting impact of that fluidity on the theoretical underpinnings of constitutional jurisprudence. Specifically, using examples such as the debates around Rachel Dolezal and Elizabeth Warren's heritage, the Census Bureau's recent proposal to create a new race (MENA) for certain individuals previously classified as white, legal controversies around eligibility requirements for affirmative action policies, and discrimination claims involving language use and personal appearance, this Article argues that modern understandings about the mutability of race can inform interpretations of the scope of Fourteenth Amendment protections and their application to broader notions of identity, whether fixed or chosen. In short, the Article calls for a more robust understanding of the Fourteenth Amendment that moves beyond the myopic and ill-conceived fetishization of immutability that has problematically guided equal-protection jurisprudence over the past half-century.

Since Kim Dae-jung's administration, the Korean government has established policy for overseas Koreans to provide nationalism education to their descendants. While the policy is still in effect today, as to how the recipients of the support in the USA make meaning of the programs given much changes in the social climate in respect to Korean culture, has not been examined in-depth. Therefore, through in-depth interviews with Korean Americans, the current study examined how the recipients of the educational program perceive policy on education program towards Korean Americans and whether it has strengthened their nationalism or sentiment towards motherland. The study further examines the factors that influences their sentiments towards the motherland as identified by Korean Americans. The findings show that exposure to the culture and parents' teachings of the Korean values have helped them embrace Korean heritage. Moreover, findings revealed that their sense of Koreanness were due to positive memories from visits they had when they were young and changes in Korea's status in the global arena. Future direction of the policy and suggestion for specific programs for Korean Americans, as well as implications of the findings are discussed.

Gentrification, the increase of affluent residents into low-income neighborhoods, is thought to heighten self-rated stress, especially for residents of color. However, the relationship between gentrification and stress has not been directly measured. This study took advantage of the 2008 and 2010 waves of the Public Health Management Corporation’s Southeastern Pennsylvania Household Health Survey, the 2000 Census, and the 2006–2010 American Community Survey to investigate the relationship of gentrification to above-average self-rated stress. We paid attention to how racial/ethnic differences in gentrification may uniquely affect stress. We also measured factors associated with gentrification with implications for one’s stress including housing cost insecurity and community connection. Using multilevel modeling, we found that gentrifying tracts marked by increases in White residents and declines in non-Whites were more likely to report above-average stress. This study provides evidence that gentrification is related to stress, emphasizing the important role racial/ethnic change has in this process. These findings call for research to unpack the causal mechanisms through which gentrification affects stress.

West Nile virus (WNV; Flaviviridae: Flavivirus) is a widely distributed arthropod-borne virus that has negatively affected human health and animal populations. WNV infection rates of mosquitoes and human cases have been shown to be correlated with climate. However, previous studies have been conducted at a variety of spatial and temporal scales, and the scale-dependence of these relationships has been understudied. We tested the hypothesis that climate variables are important to understand these relationships at all spatial scales. We analyzed the influence of climate on WNV infection rate of mosquitoes and number of human cases in New York and Connecticut using Random Forests, a machine learning technique. During model development, 66 climate-related variables based on temperature, precipitation and soil moisture were tested for predictive skill. We also included 20–21 non-climatic variables to account for known environmental effects (e.g., land cover and human population), surveillance related information (e.g., relative mosquito abundance), and to assess the potential explanatory power of other relevant factors (e.g., presence of wastewater treatment plants). Random forest models were used to identify the most important climate variables for explaining spatial-temporal variation in mosquito infection rates (abbreviated as MLE). The results of the cross-validation support our hypothesis that climate variables improve the predictive skill for MLE at county- and trap-scales and for human cases at the county-scale. Of the climate-related variables selected, mean minimum temperature from July–September was selected in all analyses, and soil moisture was selected for the mosquito county-scale analysis. Models demonstrated predictive skill, but still over- and under-estimated WNV MLE and numbers of human cases. Models at fine spatial scales had lower absolute errors but had greater errors relative to the mean infection rates.

An important topic in the study of segregation are comparisons across space and time. Theil's information index H is frequently used to study segregation. In its interpretation, H is sometimes treated a "margin-free" measure of segregation, which implies that the H index is not sensitive to marginal changes in the size of groups (for instance, racial groups) or organizational units (for instance, schools). This conclusion is only partially true, which complicates the understanding of differences in segregation levels across time and space. Regarding this issue, the paper makes three contributions. First, in line with arguments presented by Mora and Ruiz-Castillo (2009; 2011), it is shown that the closely related M index has some conceptual advantages over the H index. Additionally, the relationship between the M and H indices is further clarified. Second, by combining a method first introduced by Karmel and Maclachlan (1988) with the advantages of the M index, it is shown that a decomposition of changes in the M index into several components is possible: one component captures changes that are introduced due to the changing marginal distributions, and one component captures changes that are due to structural increases or decreases in segregation. Both of these can be further decomposed to study the precise sources of changing segregation. Third, the decomposition is further refined by taking into account the appearance or disappearance of new units and groups, and by distinguishing comparisons across time from those of across space. The paper concludes with an example.

This paper estimates, first, how local governments finance federal mandates and, second, how much value local residents place on mandated local spending using a change in federal rules on municipal infrastructure following the 1972 Clean Water Act (CWA). I leverage the role of river networks in distributing pollutants across cities, combined with pre-CWA state regulatory intensity, to account for the endogeneity of municipal infrastructure adoption decisions, and to predict ex ante compliance with the CWA infrastructure mandate. Cities under the burden of compliance experienced substantial improvements to local ambient water quality as well as a threefold increase in resident fees. Public spending on non-mandated items did not change, indicating that mandates are unlikely to displace local funding of other goods and services. The simultaneous increases to water quality and local costs resulted in taste-based sorting. However, I find that resident value of the mandated infrastructure depends upon the complementarity of surface water quality to pre-existing local features, as well as exposure to upstream polluters. These results imply that mandates may reduce inefficiencies to local public goods provision and provide positive benefits that are valued no less than their costs to local residents.

Labor market polarization refers to the observed changes in the employment structure. Since the beginning of the 1980s, there has been a notable change in the employment shares in favor of high-paid and low-paid workers at the expense of middle-paid workers. This phenomenon is detected in most industrialized Western countries and is of great importance since the middle-class represents a significant employment group in many developed countries. Thus, a decline in the middle-class may have great socioeconomic impacts. This thesis is a literature review that aims to give a deeper understanding of labor market polarization and the reasons behind it. This thesis examines polarization over the time period 1980-2010, with a focus on the Finnish labor market. The most favored explanation for polarization is the routinization hypothesis or the so-called routine-biased technological change. This hypothesis claims that the reason behind the shrinking middle-class is the substitution of routine tasks and complementation of high-skilled workers with technology. Routine tasks tend to locate in the middle of the wage and skill distribution. Therefore, the demand for middle-class workers declines with technological improvements and the price reduction of computer capital. The routine workers affected by polarization are forced to reallocate themselves in the labor market and they frequently end up in low-paying service occupations. Thus, the recent changes in the employment structure explained by the routinization hypothesis are all in accordance with the shrinking middle-class and the changes in the employment shares in favor of low-paying and high-paying occupations we observe today.

Although the literature now knows the import competition from China has signicantly reduced manufacturing employment and earnings of aected local areas, the precise mechanism through which it occurs is not known. In this paper, I argue that the suppressed employment-to-employment (EE) transition rate is an important channel for both manufacturing and non-manufacturing workers. Toward the goal, I show that Chinese import competition has decreased EE rates of both manufacturing and non-manufacturing sectors. The on-the-job labor search models with counteroers and the existing ndings that EE rates strongly comove with wage growth strengthen the EE channel of employment and wage eect.

Local traded‐goods employment multiplier estimates play an important role in the decision making of local policy makers. Therefore, it is important to understand the robustness of the approaches and quality of the data used in empirical studies. The local employment multiplier estimates by Moretti (AER; 2010) are a good benchmark for departure. In this paper, I find the traded‐goods multiplier falls within the range of 1.17 to 1.93, which is substantially lower than the estimate of 2.6 obtained by Moretti. I use multiple estimators in combination with two data sets, a range of controls and different ways of classifying traded industries to show the robustness and variability of local employment multiplier estimates. Finally, I demonstrate the sensitivity of Moretti's results. The most notable result being that Moretti's multiplier for separate skilled or unskilled workers in the nontraded sector is overestimated by a factor of 2.

Introduction: This report examines the extent of gentrification in the New York City neighborhood of Jackson Heights/Corona – officially designated Queens Community District #3 -- traditionally one of the borough’s most quintessential Latino neighborhood. Methods: The findings reported here are based on data collected by the Census Bureau IPUMS (Integrated Public Use Microdata Series), available at http://www.usa.ipums.org for the corresponding years and the US Census Bureau’s American Community Survey. This report analyzes data from PUMAS 05403 (1990) and 04102 (2000/2010/2016) in Queens. Results: The Latino community of Jackson Heights/Corona is not being displaced in any meaningful way. On the contrary, while there has certainly been an increase in the number of wealthy non-Hispanic Whites over the last decade, as of 2016 the Latino community has grown considerably since 1990 and the total number of non-Hispanic Whites has decreased sharply. The total number of Latinos in Jackson Heights/Corona has almost doubled since 1990, and the ethnic makeup of the neighborhood’s Latino community has changed significantly. The neighborhood’s citizenship rates are also up since 1990, especially among the Dominican and Colombian populations, as are the percentage of Latinos who speak English “well or very well.” Discussion: While there has certainly been an increase in the number of wealthy non-Hispanic Whites in the neighborhood over the last decade, the truth of it is that since 1990 the Latino community has expanded considerably and the total number of non-Hispanic Whites has decreased. Furthermore, the community seems to have gotten poorer, not richer, despite increased rates of educational attainment and employment.

"How did the Civil War and the emancipation of the South's four million slaves reconfigure the natural landscape and the farming economy dependent upon it? An important reconsideration of the Civil War's role in southern history, Unredeemed Land uncovers the environmental constraints that shaped the rural South's transition to capitalism during the late nineteenth century. Dixie's 'King Cotton' required extensive land use techniques, fresh soil, and slave-based agriculture in order to remain profitable. But wartime destruction and the rise of the contract labor system closed off those possibilities and necessitated increasingly intensive cultivation in ways that worked against the environment. The resulting disconnect between farmers' use of the land and what the natural environment could support went hand-in-hand with the economic dislocation of freedpeople, poor farmers, and sharecroppers. Drawing on extensive archival and governmental sources as well as scholarship in the natural sciences, Erin Mauldin demonstrates how the Civil War and emancipation accelerated ongoing ecological change in ways that hastened the postbellum collapse of the region's subsistence economy, encouraged the expansion of cotton production, and ultimately kept cotton farmers trapped in a cycle of debt and tenancy. The first environmental history to bridge the antebellum, Civil War, and Reconstruction periods, this work will appeal to anyone who is interested in the landscape of the South or the legacies of the Civil War"