This research explores the effect of climate shocks on the population growth rate of tropical countries, which are considered to be particularly vulnerable to global climate change through multiple pathways. Though the literature suggests that climate stress has implications for the population mobility path in particular, the region and country-specific nature of this research has made attempts at a global synthesis challenging. Addressing this limitation, we use census data and gridded climate data to quantitatively analyze the implications of climate change for district-level population growth across time and space for the global tropics. Preliminary findings suggest that above average temperatures have a suppressing effect on the annual population growth rate across the tropics while precipitation anomalies have a nonlinear effect on the annual population growth rate.

Background The cancer burden in South Florida, with a population of more than 6 million with a heavily Hispanic and large Afro-Caribbean population, has not been quantified. Methods We analyzed 2012–2016 cancer mortality data from South Florida for white, Hispanic, and black populations with disaggregation for Cuban, Puerto Rican, South American, African American, and Afro-Caribbean groups. We calculated cancer site-specific and all-sites combined age-adjusted mortality rates, and we used negative binomial regression to determine mortality rate ratios to compare South Florida’s cancer mortality rates with those of the rest of the nation. Results We analyzed 53,837 cancer deaths. Per 100,000 population, cancer mortality rates in South Florida were similar among white (173 per 100,000) and black (176 per 100,000) men and among white and black women (133 for both), and they were lowest among Hispanic men (151 per 100,000) and women (93 per 100,000). However, compared with their counterparts nationally, Hispanic residents in South Florida had higher cancer mortality rates, largely driven by Cuban residents, and mortality rates among white and black residents, especially male residents, were substantially lower. Liver cancer rates were high among white and Puerto Rican “baby boomers”; lung cancer mortality was low among all groups except Cuban men; cervical cancer was high among white, black, and Puerto Rican women. Conclusion Cancer patterns are not monochromatic in all US regions; South Florida is distinctive. Meeting the needs of an aging diverse population presents challenges for all major metropolitan areas. Expanding surveillance, increasing minority participation in clinical trials, and investing in culturally specific community-based health promotion must continue.

This dissertation studies the interaction of immigration and fiscal policy. Chapter 1 establishes patterns of fertility, education, earnings for both immigrants and their children. Chapter 2 studies the substitutability of similarly qualified immigrants, as measured by educational attainment and degree field, and natives in production. I find a much greater degree of imperfect substitutability than previous literature and as a result can show the effects of previous immigration on the wages of unskilled workers is close to 0. Chapter 3 incorporates the findings from chapters 1 and 2 into a calibrated general equilibrium model with which I can run a number of immigration policy experiments. Using this framework I show that omitting the correlation between the skills of parents and their children will likely understate the effects of any immigration policy change in the U.S.

Although the decline in marriage has been cited as a possible contributor to the “despair” afflicting marginalized White communities, these studies have not directly considered mortality by marital status. This paper uses complete death certificate data from the Mortality Multiple Cause Files with American Community Survey data to examine age-specific mortality rates for married and non-married people from 2007 to 2017. The overall rise in White mortality is limited almost exclusively to those who are not married, for men and women. By comparison, mortality for Blacks and Hispanics has fallen or remained flat regardless of marital status (except for young, single Hispanic men). Analysis by education level shows death rates have risen most for Whites with the lowest education, but have also increased for those with high school or some college. Because mortality has risen faster for unmarried Whites at all but the lowest education levels, there has been an increase in the marriage mortality ratio. Mortality differentials are an increasingly important component of the social hierarchy associated with marital status.

The United States has signed international social security totalization agreements with30 countries. For persons working in a foreign country during part of their careers, theseagreements reduce double taxation on social security burdens and reduce the risk of notqualifying for social security benefits. In this report, we consider the potential of internationalsocial security totalization agreements to affect macroeconomic outcomes. We find that theseagreements are associated with higher levels of foreign direct investment. The theoreticalframework indicates that these treaties can affect firms’ decisions to relocate their activitiesacross borders, but the magnitude and direction of this effect depends on the characteristics ofthe countries involved. The effects of these agreements are larger when the share of foreigncontrolled production is smaller in the host country.

We propose a statistical procedure to determine the dimension of the nonstationary subspace of cointegrated functional time series taking values in the Hilbert space of square-integrable functions defined on a compact interval. The procedure is based on sequential application of a proposed test for the dimension of the nonstationary subspace. To avoid estimation of the long-run covariance operator, our test is based on a variance ratio-type statistic. We derive the asymptotic null distribution and prove consistency of the test. Monte Carlo simulations show good performance of our test and provide evidence that it outperforms the existing testing procedure. We apply our methodology to three empirical examples: age-specific US employment rates, Australian temperature curves, and Ontario electricity demand.

A robust body of social science research has investigated the spatial mismatch hypothesis (SMH), considering the consequences of geographic disparities between black residential locations and potential opportunities for employment. Focusing on U.S. urban areas since the 1970s, studies have produced equivocal evidence for the SMH. In this paper, we argue that this may result from a misspecification in both the historical period and mechanisms whereby spatial mismatch affects black employment opportunities. We show that national declines in black employment and labor force participation, particularly among black women, were especially pronounced in the Jim Crow era, rather than the post-industrial era in which the SMH has generally been tested. We then investigate the extent to which the SMH should be formulated as a commuting problem or a problem of residential ecology, in which blacks who do not live near entrepreneurs or white neighbors are less likely to obtain jobs.

Background Understanding tuberculosis epidemiology among children and adolescents informs treatment and prevention efforts, and efforts to eliminate disparities in tuberculosis incidence and mortality. We sought to describe the epidemiology of children and adolescents with tuberculosis disease in the USA, including tuberculosis incidence rates by parental country of birth and for US territories and freely associated states, which have not been previously described. Methods We analysed data for children aged younger than 15 years and adolescents aged 15–17 years with tuberculosis disease reported to the National Tuberculosis Surveillance System during 2007–17, and calculated tuberculosis incidence rates using population estimates from the US Census Bureau. Findings During 2010–17, 6072 tuberculosis cases occurred among children and adolescents; of these, 5175 (85%) of 6072 occurred in the 50 US states or the District of Columbia and 897 (15%) of 6072 in US-affiliated islands. In US states, 3520 (68%) of 5175 cases occurred among US-born people overall, including 2977 (76%) of 3896 children and 543 (42%) of 1279 adolescents. The incidence rate among children and adolescents was 1·0 per 100 000 person-years during 2007–17 and declined 47·8% (95% CI −51·4 to −44·1) during this period. We observed disproportionately high tuberculosis rates among children and adolescents of all non-white racial or ethnic groups, people living in US-affiliated islands, and children born in or with parents from tuberculosis-endemic countries. Interpretation Overall, tuberculosis incidence among children and adolescents in the USA is low and steadily declining, but additional efforts are needed to eliminate disparities in incidence and mortality.

This study estimates the causal effect of access to paid sick time on worker mobility, by exploiting the variation in the implementation of local paid sick time mandates over time in the U.S. I use May 2004 – June 2019 Current Population Survey (CPS) basic monthly data, and by taking the Difference-in-Differences approach, I find that the local mandates significantly reduce private sector employees’ monthly job turnover. This study is, to the best of my knowledge, the first to present the effect of the local paid sick time mandates in the U.S. on worker mobility

Inventions often economize on labor, so economists have long posited that scarce labor should encourage invention (Hicks, 1932). But the production of new inventions can require a division of labor and economies of scale that require plentiful labor instead. We provide the first causal evidence of mass immigration's effect on invention, using variation induced by 1920s quotas, which ended history's largest international migration. Inventors in cities and industries exposed to fewer low-skilled immigrants applied for fewer patents. Industries with small establishment sizes attracted an ever-increasing share of invention. Labor scarcity affected both the rate and direction of inventive activity. JEL: J24, N32, O31

This report presents estimates of the number of individuals eligible for WIC benefits and the percentage of the eligible population participating in calendar year (CY) 2017. For the purposes of this report, WIC participants are defined as those individuals who were enrolled in WIC and claimed their benefits in an average month of CY 2017. WIC provides services in 90 State agencies: the 50 States; the District of Columbia; 5 U.S. territories (American Samoa, Guam, the Northern Mariana Islands, Puerto Rico, and the U.S. Virgin Islands); and 34 ITOs. Estimates are provided at the national, regional, and State levels, and include Puerto Rico and other U.S. territories.4 Estimates are also provided by participant category—i.e., infants, children, pregnant women, and postpartum women—and by race and ethnicity.

Este estudo objetiva avaliar e identificar, através de uma análise da renda de mulheres e homens, fatores que contribuem para a desigualdade de gênero presente no mercado de trabalho brasileiro. A partir dos dados de indivíduos com ocupação e habitantes de áreas urbanas extraídos da Pesquisa Nacional por Amostra de Domicílios (PNAD) de 2015 foram analisados fatores que pudessem ter impacto no gap de gênero, por exemplo: escolaridade, raça, região, estado civil, afazeres domésticos, experiência e qualidade do emprego. Após uma análise descritiva, foram estimados modelos de regressão através do método dos mínimos quadrados ordinários (MQO), utilizando como variável dependente a renda e como variáveis explicativas adaptações dos fatores supracitados. Nos resultados foi verificado que a cor e a região parecem não contribuir de forma relevante para a desigualdade de gênero no mercado de trabalho, diferentemente do estado civil e, principalmente, da realização de afazeres domésticos, que afetam diretamente o gap observado no caso brasileiro.

This paper explores the effect of transportation systems on urban food access in the United States. Since the development of the interstate highways system, transportation costs were reduced and many cities developed in a sprawling pattern characterized by low population density and car dependence. I hypothesize that this change caused the decline of neighborhood grocery stores, and local bodegas selling fresh food. I look at how changes in transportation patterns affected the food desert status of all urban census tracts in the United States. I use a difference in differences model as well as an instrumental variables model to attempt to understand if results are consistent given both approaches to addressing endogeneity. The results suggest that sprawl development and car dependence are consistently associated with food desert status; however, the magnitude of the effect is modest.

We study inference in shift-share regression designs, such as when a regional outcome is regressed on a weighted average of sectoral shocks, using regional sector shares as weights. We conduct a placebo exercise in which we estimate the effect of a shift-share regressor constructed with randomly generated sectoral shocks on actual labor market outcomes across U.S. commuting zones. Tests based on commonly used standard errors with 5% nominal significance level reject the null of no effect in up to 55% of the placebo samples. We use a stylized economic model to show that this overrejection problem arises because regression residuals are correlated across regions with similar sectoral shares, independent of their geographic location. We derive novel inference methods that are valid under arbitrary cross-regional correlation in the regression residuals. We show using popular applications of shift-share designs that our methods may lead to substantially wider confidence intervals in practice.

In one of my research projects, I’m examining shifts in employment by occupational categories in the Detroit and Pittsburgh region. One result of my work is that I’ve become much more familiar with the 1990 Census Bureau occupational classification scheme. The occupational categories that respondents are placed into are fairly detailed. Specific categories exist for locksmiths and safe repairers (code 536), railroad conductors and yardmasters (code 823), payroll and timekeeping clerks (code 338), funeral directors (code 019), and even sociology instructors (code 125, under Teachers, Postsecondary). Examining the characteristics of workers in particular occupation categories can illustrate the structure of their labor market, and the information can help develop a sociological imagination. The category that recently caught my eye, is “furnace, kiln, and oven operators, apart from food (code 766),” because working around kilns and furnaces has become a tradition in my family.

Current strategies for economic development policy use shift-share analysis, location quotient calculations and forward and backward linkage information to identify industry clusters to pursue for economic development. But at different levels of unemployment, different strategies are needed. By using wage data and a systematic approach to analysis, a more measurable approach to economic development can be built. Applying regression analysis to wage data isolates the factors that most contribute to high wages, such as industry, occupation and type of education. Assessing these factors, then applying additional criteria to top identified industries, leads to a more robust economic development strategy. By creating a method for identifying factors that lead to desired economic outcomes, such as increased wages, economic development policy can be more efficient.

Purpose: The study objectives were to estimate the size of and to describe the population that remains uninsured in the United States by sexual orientation. Methods: Data on nonelderly adults came from the 2016 and 2017 National Health Interview Survey. We used descriptive statistics and multivariable logistic regression to identify the risk factors for uninsurance by sexual orientation. Results: Uninsured sexual minority adults were significantly more likely to be 26–34 years, female, noncitizens, living with an unmarried partner, and living in the Midwest and southern United States. Conclusions: Health insurance enrollment campaigns should target specific subgroups to close coverage gaps for sexual minority individuals.

We study the effects of the 1930s-era HOLC “redlining” maps on the long-run trajectories of neighborhoods. Using a boundary design along with propensity score methods, we estimate the causal effects of the maps on racial segregation, home ownership, house values, rents, and credit scores. We also compare cities on either side of a population cutoff that determined whether maps were drawn for identification. Our results suggest that the HOLC maps had an economically meaningful and lasting effect on the development of urban neighborhoods through reduced credit access and subsequent disinvestment.

This article examines how product innovations led to inflation inequality in the United States from 2004 to 2015. Using scanner data from the retail sector, I find that annual inflation for retail products was 0.661 (std. err. 0.0535) percentage points higher for the bottom income quintile relative to the top income quintile. When including changes in product variety over time, this difference increases to 0.8846 (std. err. 0.0739) percentage points a year. In CEX-CPI data covering the full consumption basket, the annual inflation difference is 0.368 (std. err. 0.0502) percentage points. I investigate the following hypothesis: (i) the relative demand for products consumed by high-income households increased because of growth and rising inequality; (ii) in response, firms introduced more new products catering to such households; (iii) as a result, the prices of continuing products in these market segments fell due to increased competitive pressure. Using a shift-share research design, I find causal evidence that increasing relative demand leads to increasing product variety and lower inflation for continuing products. A calibration indicates that the hypothesized channel accounts for a large fraction (over 50%) of observed inflation inequality.

As a result of the GI Bill, returning World War II veterans were generally highly educated, but their locations following the war were uneven across cities in the US. Exploiting the spatial variation in the returning veterans driven by the network of veterans, I study the long run consequences of an increase in the local human capital. After the war, the shock produced a large and uneven increase in local skills. Furthermore , this shock had persistent effects on the local human capital during 1940-2010, and it greatly increased the local skill premium because of directed technical change after 1970.