We investigate the impact of local agglomeration economies on household portfolio choice. Using detailed location and employment data from two U.S. household surveys , we document that individuals who work in locally agglomerated industries are more likely to invest in risky assets. This pattern cannot be explained by households sorting on latent factors, local employers' stock compensation and pension policies, or investors' local biases. Instead, the relation between local agglomeration and portfolio decisions is consistent with industry clusters enhancing human capital and in turn, raising workers' effective risk tolerance. Our findings highlight the role of geography in shaping household financial decisions. as well as session and seminar participants at the ITAM

With America's population aging and America's late-life workforce eschewing the traditional retirement path, the stability of retirement pathways must be reanalyzed to better reflect this heterogenous demographic. Through generational analysis, we see that there is only a slight change in employment stability for generations of those 50-74. However, we see vast differences in employment stability by spousal status. Employment of a spouse and being coupled versus living alone result in differing opportunities to switch careers or retire. This research indicates that a dyadic focus in retirement plans and employment stability is crucial for analyzing the older generations' life trajectories.

The power and prospect of automation and artificial intelligence (AI) initially alarmed technology experts, for fear that machine advancements would destroy jobs. Then came a correction of sorts, with a wave of reassurances minimizing their negative impacts. Now, the discourse appears to be arriving at a more complicated, mixed understanding that suggests that automation will bring neither apocalypse nor utopia, but instead both benefits and stresses alike. Such is the ambiguous and sometimes disembodied nature of the “future of work” discussion. Which is where the present analysis aims to help. Intended to clear up misconceptions on the subject of automation, the following report employs government and private data, including from the McKinsey Global Institute, to develop both backward- and forward-looking analyses of the impacts of automation over the years 1980 to 2016 and 2016 to 2030 across some 800 occupations. In doing so, the report assesses past and coming trends as they affect both people and communities, and suggests a comprehensive response framework for national and state-local policymakers.

Does exposure to a mass migration event cause citizens to vote against incumbents? I offer an answer to this question by focussing on one of the largest acute periods of migration in the US, the case of the Mariel Boatlift during which roughly 125,000 Cubans fled to South Florida. I estimate the effect of this migration using the synthetic control method and fixed effects regressions with a panel of county-level presidential election results and archival precinct-level election results. I find that, while Miami voters dramatically shifted to support Republican presidential candidates following the Boatlift, this shift was concentrated in overwhelmingly Cuban neighborhoods and that Cuban neighborhoods in a county with much less direct exposure increased Republican support to a similar degree. I also present evidence that this shift did not extend to voting in US House elections. These findings suggests that, in this case, direct exposure to migration did not translate into the large change in voting behavior predicted by the intergroup threat hypothesis and a number of economic models of voter behavior.

Approximately half of Americans work at a firm where they are forbidden or discouraged from discussing their pay with coworkers. Employees who violate these rules may be subject to punishment or dismissal. While many employees are legally protected from reprisal under the National Labor Rights Act, the law does not cover managers. Eleven states have passed laws banning pay secrecy policies for managers. In this paper, we explore what effect these state laws had on wages and inequality. We find that pay secrecy bans increased the wages of managers by 3.2%. There is suggestive evidence these policies increased wage inequality in the labor market. The wage gains of managers went solely to men earning above the median income. This increased the wage gap for female managers earning above the median income by 7%.

The Key to (Almost) Everything is an engaging, contemporary and concise approach to sociology written for adults, students and just about anybody who could profit from knowing about the discipline of sociology. It is expertly written by an author drawing on 40 years of teaching on the fundamental social structures and processes characteristic of human societies. Each of the book’s chapters is modeled on the courses found in the sociology curriculum. These chapters are not course or lecture notes, rather they are engaging lessons on topics such as political sociology, urban sociology, religion in sociology, crime and guns, poverty, the American family, public opinion, wealth and power.

Recent research has put the likely number of Civil War male deaths on both sides of the conflict at 750,000, challenging the conventional number of approximately 620,000. Using similar data and a different methodology, this study supports the newer results in terms of the Confederate states, where we find approximately 346,000 male deaths, a number that far exceeds a long-accepted estimate of 126,000. In fact, our number is about 88,000 more deaths than estimated by even more recent research, putting the number at 258,000. In constructing our number, we estimate the demographic impact of the Civil War on white males who were aged 20–54 in 1870 in the eleven Confederate States. Our approach takes into account both mortality and migration, but it excludes fertility because the youngest age we examine is 20 years. We apply an impact analysis approach using extracts from the micro-level data from the 1850, 1860, and 1870 census counts assembled by the Minnesota Population Center. Using the 1850 and 1860 census counts, we constructed ten-year Cohort Change Ratios (CCRs) for white males by five-year age groups and applied them to 1860 white males aged 10–14, 15–19 . . . 40–44 by state to project the expected number of white males by five-year age groups, 20–24, 25–29 . . . 50–54 for 1870. The results were aggregated into a single age group of 20–54 and compared with the 1870 census numbers for this same age group by state and for all eleven states combined. The Civil War’s demographic impact on white males in all eleven states of the Confederacy due to the combined effects of mortality and migration is estimated by subtracting the 1870 expected number (1,393,125) for age group 20–54 generated by the CCR method from the 1870 actual (census) number (1,047,323). The difference is –345,802 (–24.8%). We also find substantial absolute and relative variation across the eleven states in regard to the war’s demographic impact and discuss these results. Our estimate of Confederate deaths brings the total number of dead on both sides to nearly 850,000, which exceeds the total number of US military deaths resulting from every war and military action in which the United States has participated since the Civil War’s end.

After the demise of the slavery and rise of crime after the end of the Civil War, convict labor system evolved in the United States in order to finance state penitentiary institutions. It provided monetary incentives to the police to arrest more people. Black and other minorities became an easy target for a police that used a variety of minor crime laws to increase the supply of coerced labor. Using the geographical variation of convict labor camps in the United States in 1886-1940 I show that counties exposed to a more severe exploitation of convict labor experienced had higher incarceration rates in 1920 and 1930, especially among minorities. After the abolishment of the old convict labor system in 1941, the racial discrimination in policing remained: the same variation of convict labor camps predicts excessive arrests of Black and Hispanic for non-violent crimes (drugs and vagrancy). To show that the results are causal I use the exogenous shock of first massive expansion of the U.S. convict labor system in 1870 that had happened when the National Prison Association was founded in Cincinnati, Ohio. I use distance to Cincinnati as an instrument for the value of goods produced by convict labor. It correlates with the likelihood of attending the Congress by the wardens of prisons, and cost of getting information about the profitability of convict labor. I perform a series of sensitivity checks and placebo tests to ensure that results are indeed causal.

In this report, we explain the methodology of Nationscape and the procedures used to estimate population quantities. We evaluate the representativeness of Nationscape by replicating the process used by the Pew Research Center to evaluate the representativeness of online samples. To do so, we asked respondents a set of questions that are also asked on reliable large-sample government surveys. We produced estimates based on responses to these questions using the same procedures that we use to produce our weekly estimates regarding public opinion and the 2020 election. We compare the differences between our estimates and government survey targets to the differences between the online samples that Pew examined and the same government targets. We find that our procedures for Nationscape return estimates that are as close to the government survey targets as the other online samples tested by the Pew Research Center. The median difference between our estimates and the government survey targets was 3.5 percent while the Pew analysis found a median difference of 3.6 percent.

The U.S. Census Bureau classifies survey respondents into hundreds of detailed industry and occupation categories. The classification systems change periodically, creating breaks in time series. Standard crosswalks and unified category systems bridge the periods but these often leave sparse or empty cells, or induce sharp changes in time series. We propose a methodology to predict standardized industry, occupation, and related variables for each employed respondent in the public use samples from recent Censuses of Population and CPS data. Unlike earlier approaches, predictions draw from micro data on each individual and large training data sets. Tests of the resulting “augmented” data sets can evaluate their consistency with known trends, smoothness criteria, and benchmarks.

De 1990 à 1998, la totalité des cinquante et un états américains ont employé la loi tolérance zéro en vue de réduire à la fois les accidents de route et le taux de beuveries chez les jeunes. En 1998 aux États-Unis, il est interdit aux jeunes conducteurs âgés de 16 à 21 ans de conduire si une quantité minime d’alcool se trouve dans son sang, alors que la loi pour les personnes âgées de 22 ans et plus demeure inchangée. Ce papier examine l’effet de l’implémentation de cette loi sur la santé à long terme. En employant la méthode de différence-en-différence, nous trouvons une réduction des invalidités ambulatoire et visuelle ou auditive à l’âge de 37 à 40 ans. Ces résultats sont robustes à l’inclusion de la tendance linéaire par année de naissance. D’une façon plus intéressante, nous trouvons que les effets sont concentrés sur les hommes blancs. Il n’existe quasiment pas d’effets pour les hommes non blancs ou même pour les femmes de n’importe quelle race.

This paper estimates the elasticity of substitution between capital and skill in manufacturing using immigration-induced variation in skill mix across U.S. counties between 1860 and 1930. We find that capital initially complemented both high-And low-skill labor (determined by literacy) and, unlike today, was more complementary with low-skill labor. Around 1890, capital increased its relative complementarity with high-skill labor. Simulations calibrated to our estimates imply the level of capital-skill complementarity after 1890 allowed the manufacturing sector to absorb the large wave of Eastern and Southern European immigrants with only a modest decline in less-skilled relative wages. This would not have been possible under the older production technology.

The objective of this paper is to empirically estimate the economic and social effects of Patria Grande, a large regularization program implemented in Argentina between 2006 and 2010 that allowed almost half a million of undocumented immigrants to regularize their situation, representing approximately 30% of the total immigrant population. In a nutshell, immigrants were able to obtain a temporary residency permit and an Argentine tax-ID number (i.e., CUIL) by simply showing evidence that they were born in a MERCOSUR country and signing an affidavit that they had no criminal records.

We examine the effects of state-level economic conditions including unemployment rates, median house price, median household income, insurance coverage, and annual and weekly work time on deaths on drug overdose deaths including from opioids and prescription opioids between 1999 and 2014. We employ difference-in-differences estimation controlling for state and year fixed effects, state-specific time trends, and demographic characteristics. Drug overdose deaths significantly declined with higher house prices, an effect driven by reduction in prescription-opioid mortality, by nearly 0.17 deaths per 100,000 (~4%) with a $10,000 increase in median house price. House price effects were more pronounced and only significant among males, non-Hispanic Whites, and individuals younger 45 years. Other economic indicators had insignificant effects. Our findings suggest that economic downturns that substantially reduce house prices such as the Great Recession can increase opioid-related deaths, suggesting that efforts to control access to such drugs should especially intensify during these periods.

The ‘microclass’ approach advocated by Grusky, Weeden and colleagues emphasises fine-grained occupational differences and their relevance to social reproduction and social mobility. Using recent developments in historical occupational classifications, we adopted a microclass approach to the analysis of intergenerational social mobility using linked census data for Norway and the USA in the late 19th and early 20th century (1850–1910). We describe a procedure that offers an operationalisation of microclass units for these datasets, and show how its application enables us to disentangle different forms of immobility which would not be distinguished in other approaches. Results suggest that microclass immobility is an important part of social reproduction in both Norway and the United States during the era of industrialisation. Both countries reveal a similar balance between ‘big class’ and ‘microclass’ immobility patterns. In Norway, the relative importance of microclasses in social reproduction regimes, wh...

We estimate relationships between Medicaid expansions and poverty, using the Census Bureau’s supplemental poverty measure (SPM) and a recently developed health-inclusive poverty measure (HIPM). The HIPM modifies the SPM by adding a need for health insurance to the SPM poverty threshold and by adding a family’s health insurance benefits to family resources. Results from logistic regressions that control for sociodemographic characteristics, income, and benefits other than health insurance show that the (adjusted) HIPM poverty rate is 1.7 percentage points (10 percent) lower in expansion than in nonexpansion states, and the HIPM deep poverty rate is 0.9 percentage points (13 percent) lower. Differences in SPM poverty rates are generally small and insignificant. Medicaid expansion is associated with substantial HIPM poverty reductions for children, persons 55–64 years old, blacks, Hispanics, and those who have not completed high school. These populations are particularly vulnerable to proposed rollbacks in Medicaid expansions.

A vast literature uses ingroup biases to explain animus towards others. The notion can be extended to multi-identity societies, where social preferences are de...ned over one ingroup and multiple outgroups. We use a novel research design to recover the structure of social preferences across outgroups in a high stakes setting. We investigate whether increased animosity towards Muslims post 9-11 had spillover e¤ects on Black and Hispanic individuals in the federal criminal justice system. Using linked administrative data tracking defendants from arrest through to sentencing, our core ...nding is that as 9-11 increased animosity towards Muslims, sentence and pre-sentence outcomes for Hispanic defendants signi...cantly worsened. Outcomes for Black defendants were unchanged. We underpin a causal interpretation of our ...ndings by providing evidence in favor of the identifying assumptions underlying the research design. The ...ndings are consistent with judges and prosecutors displaying social preferences characterized by contagious animosity from Muslims to Hispanics. To understand why increased animosity towards Muslims post 9-11 could spillover onto Hispanics, we draw on work in sociology to detail how Islamophobia and immigration have become intertwined in American consciousness since the mid 1990s, but were forcefully framed together in the aftermath of 9-11. We narrow the interpretation of the results as being driven by social preference structures using decomposition analysis, and correlating sentencing di¤erentials to judge characteristics, including their race/ethnicity. Our ...ndings provide among the ...rst ...eld evidence of contagious animosity, that social preferences across outgroups are interlinked and malleable.

The risk of AIDS-related mortality increased dramatically throughout the 1990s. This paper updates previous work by Fortson (2011) to examine the impact of mortality risk on human capital investment during the deadliest period of the epidemic. We combine Demographic Health Survey data from 30 countries and across 60 survey waves to generate a sample of over 1,300,000 observations. Cohort-specific analysis using the updated sample yields new evidence that the increased salience of mortality risk steepened the negative relationship between HIV-prevalence and schooling. These findings are strongest for decisions made prior to the significant expansion of AIDS treatment that began in the mid-2000s. The trends persists for both men and women; however, the reduction in schooling for women is stronger along the extensive margin of the schooling decision. The findings highlight that the decline in human capital investment associated with the heightened mortality risk of the HIV/AIDS epidemic prior to the expansion of treatment was larger in magnitude and more widespread than previously understood.

Does the economic effect of immigrant women differ from that of immigrant men? This paper examines if gender has influenced the short- and long-term economic impact of mass migration to the United States, using census microdata from 1880 and 1910. By means of ordinary least squares (OLS) and instrumental variables (IV) estimations, the analysis shows that a concentration of immigrant women led to lower levels of development in US counties. However, immigrant women also shaped economic development positively, albeit indirectly, via their children. Communities with more children born to foreign mothers experienced greater growth than those dominated by children of foreign-born fathers or American-born parents.

Objective Azathioprine (AZA) and mycophenolate mofetil (MMF) are frequently used immunosuppressives for moderate‐to‐severe SLE. We studied longitudinal patterns and predictors of adherence to AZA and MMF in a nationwide U.S. SLE cohort. Methods In the Medicaid Analytic eXtract (2000‐2010), we identified SLE patients who initiated AZA or MMF (no use in prior 6 months) with >12 months of continuous follow‐up. We dichotomized adherence at 80% with >24/30 days/month considered adherent. We used group‐based trajectory models to estimate monthly adherence patterns and multivariable multinomial logistic regression to determine the association between demographic, SLE and utilization‐related predictors and the odds ratios (OR) of belonging to a nonadherent vs. the adherent trajectory, separately for AZA and MMF. Results We identified 2,309 AZA initiators and 2,070 MMF initiators with SLE. Four‐group trajectory models classified 17% of AZA and 21% of MMF initiators as adherent. AZA and MMF nonadherers followed similar trajectory patterns. Black race (OR 1.67, 95% CI 1.20‐2.31) and Hispanic ethnicity (OR 1.58, 95% CI 1.06‐2.35) increased odds of AZA nonadherence; there were no significant associations between race/ethnicity and MMF nonadherence. Male sex and polypharmacy were associated with lower odds of nonadherence to both medications; lupus nephritis was associated with lower odds of nonadherence to MMF (OR 0.74, 95% CI 0.55‐0.99). Conclusions Adherence to AZA or MMF over the first year of use was rare. Race, sex and lupus nephritis were modestly associated with adherence, but the magnitude, direction and significance of predictors differed by medication suggesting the complexity of predicting adherence behavior.