Total Results: 22543
Gradín, Carlos
2020.
Segregation of women into low-paying occupations in the United States.
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We extend the conventional framework for measuring segregation to consider the stratification of occupations by gender, i.e. when either women or men are predominantly segregated into low-paying jobs. We propose the use of the concentration curve to analyse first-order stochastic dominance, and concentration indices to obtain complete orderings and to quantify the phenomenon. With this approach, well-rooted in the literature of economic inequality, we show that the decline in gender segregation of occupations in the US over time was accompanied by a deeper and longer reduction in their stratification. The distinctive characteristics of men and women cannot account for segregation or stratification levels. The profound changes in the composition of the workforce over time by education or marital status, however, did help to substantially explain their trends. The level of stratification was farther reduced by gender-biased changes in the earnings structure, while changes in conditional occupational distributions only contributed to these declines before 1990.
USA
Ding, Jiahao; Wang, Jingyi; Liang, Guannan; Bi, Jinbo; Pan, Miao
2020.
Towards Plausible Differentially Private ADMM Based Distributed Machine Learning.
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The Alternating Direction Method of Multipliers (ADMM) and its distributed version have been widely used in machine learning. In the iterations of ADMM, model updates using local private data and model exchanges among agents impose critical privacy concerns. Despite some pioneering works to relieve such concerns, differentially private ADMM still confronts many research challenges. For example, the guarantee of differential privacy (DP) relies on the premise that the optimality of each local problem can be perfectly attained in each ADMM iteration, which may never happen in practice. The model trained by DP ADMM may have low prediction accuracy. In this paper, we address these concerns by proposing a novel (Improved) Plausible differentially Private ADMM algorithm , called PP-ADMM and IPP-ADMM. In PP-ADMM, each agent approximately solves a perturbed optimization problem that is formulated from its local private data in an iteration, and then perturbs the approximate solution with Gaussian noise to provide the DP guarantee. To further improve the model accuracy and convergence, an improved version IPP-ADMM adopts sparse vector technique (SVT) to determine if an agent should update its neighbors with the current perturbed solution. The agent calculates the difference of the current solution from that in the last iteration, and if the difference is larger than a threshold, it passes the solution to neighbors; or otherwise the solution will be discarded. Moreover, we propose to track the total privacy loss under the zero-concentrated DP (zCDP) and provide a generalization performance analysis. Experiments on real-world datasets demonstrate that under the same privacy guarantee, the proposed algorithms are superior to the state of the art in terms of model accuracy and convergence rate.
IPUMSI
Oakley, Deirdre; Ukpabi, Ifeanyi
2020.
How Far Yet to Go? The Status of Women in Georgia 1970 and Today.
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In April, 1970, Atlanta Journal Constitution (AJC) reporter Lorraine M. Bennet wrote an article headlined, “How Far Yet to Go, Baby? Some Atlanta Women in Revolt.” It focused on how the Atlanta Women’s Liberation Movement was the only organization in the metro area fi ghting discrimination against women whose members were publicly labeled “man-haters.” In one passage, a member responded, “Certainly Not!” Bennet goes on to write: “responds one member, a dark-eyed brunette with a masters degree” (40). By today’s standards, the fact that this article described the eye and hair color, as well as the education level of this member would be considered irrelevant. Was this “code” for describing a nontraditional southern woman? Indeed, things have come a long way for the women of Georgia: in the workforce, in family life, education, employment income, healthcare, and in elected offi ce. And yes, you can be a dark-eyed brunette with a master’s degree and belong to a women’s rights organization without being labeled a “man-hater.” Georgia’s women make a signifi cant contribution to the state’s GDP, now the ninth largest in the country. Yet Georgia continues to lag behind other states, the nation as a whole, and other developed Western countries on many measures of women’s equality and well-being: earnings parity, maternal mortality, family planning, family and maternity leave, and aff ordable childcare (Phadke, Ravi, and McGrew 2018). The poor status of reproductive health and justice in Georgia is compounded by the persistence of racial inequality, compromising the lives of women of color (Prather et al. 2018).
USA
Kim, Jinyoung; Park, Cyn-Young
2020.
Education, skill training, and lifelong learning in the era of technological revolution: a review.
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Rapid technological development makes skills depreciate faster than in the past while new technologies generate gaps in workers' skills and call for the acquisition of appropriate skills and lifelong learning. Proper skill mixes for future jobs include strong cognitive skills, basic information and communication technology, and analytical skills, as well as a range of non-cognitive skills such as creativity, problem-solving, critical thinking, and communication. Retraining and reskilling workers are also crucial, particularly as life expectancy increases. All these changes lead to a major rethinking of education and skill training throughout a person's life. This paper reviews the recent studies on human capital and skill formation in the era of rapid technological progress. Findings from these studies, particularly in labour economics, can shed light on new directions for lifelong education policies, for example (1) parental investment in pre-school learning is reflected in highly positive adult outcomes; (2) as far as education inputs are concerned, teacher quality is far more important than additional school resources; and (3) government workforce training programs are largely ineffective as compared to private training, which contribute significantly to worker productivity.
USA
Lin, Desen; Wachter, Susan
2020.
Land Use Regulation, Regulatory Spillover and Housing Prices.
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We estimate the effect of city land use regulation on housing prices in the presence of regulatory spillover. The total effect of regulation is decomposed into a direct effect in which regulation lowers housing productivity and an indirect effect in which household location choice mitigates the price effects of regulatory restrictions. Using housing sales data from California, we structurally estimate a closed-form housing price equation based on a housing model with spatial arbitrage. We find that the total price effect of a one standard deviation increase in city restrictiveness is 9.3% on average, ranging from 4.1% to 14.4% across cities. The spillover effect is economically significant, with the size of the indirect effect equal to 21% of the direct effect for an average city, ranging from 0 to 47%. We point to the importance of identifying direct and indirect effects by controlling for regulation in surrounding locations. For jurisdictions with the power to impose regulation on a larger number of locations, regulation has a stronger price impact due to limits on regulatory spillover.
USA
Dechezleprêtre, Antoine; Hémous, David; Olsen, Morten; Zanella, Carlo
2020.
Automating Labor: Evidence from Firm-level Patent Data.
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Do higher wages lead to more automation innovations? And if so, by how much? To answer this question, we build a firm-level panel dataset on automation innovation. We use the frequency of certain keywords in the text of patent data to identify automation patents in machinery. We validate our measure by showing that it is correlated with a reduction in routine tasks in a cross-sectoral analysis. We then use macroeconomic data on 40 countries and information on geographical patent history to build firm-specific measures of low-skill and high-skill wages. We find that an exogenous increase in low-skill wages leads to more automation innovations with an elasticity between 1 and 2.2. An increase in high-skill wages tends to reduce automation innovations. Placebo regressions show that the effect is specific to automation innovations. JEL: O31, O33, J20
USA
Chung, Seung-Hun
2020.
The impact of regional environmental amenity on skill aggregation across regions in developing countries: evidence from air pollution in China.
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This paper investigates the impact of an environmental amenity on regional skill aggregation, defined as the share of highly educated people. I analyzed the impact of air quality on skill aggregation across prefecture-level cities in China using college graduates as the measure of skill aggregation. By exploiting exogenous air quality variation from a Chinese heating policy known as the Huai River Policy, I identified a considerable negative impact of air pollution on the share of high-skilled people in the city population. This indicates that an environmental amenity has considerable potential to influence regional growth even in developing countries.
USA
IPUMSI
Goodnature, Mia
2020.
Three Essays on the Impact of Demographic and Environmental Changes on Home Sales.
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Gentrification occurs when low-income areas transition into higher-income neighborhoods. Chapter 1 examines one possible driver of gentrification: the influx of same-sex couples into a community. Anecdotal evidence suggests that there is a relationship between same-sex couples and gentrification, but this could be because these couples sort into neighborhoods that are more likely to gentrify. To address the endogeneity problem, we employ an instrumental variables strategy using voting results for the state-level equivalent of the Defense of Marriage Act in Ohio as an instrument for the change in the number of same-sex couples. We find that areas with a higher change in the number of same-sex couples are more likely to experience gentrification. In addition, using semi-parametric techniques, we find there is a tipping point after which gentrification is more likely to occur. Overall, our results suggest that same-sex couples can initiate gentrification, but there is a threshold that has to be met for neighborhood change to be more likely to occur. These findings are important for policy makers because understanding the drivers of gentrification is crucial to designing effective policy to revitalize urban neighborhoods and address any problems attributed to gentrification. Chapter 2 identifies same-sex couple households who purchase homes together and evaluates the concentration of their residential location. We draw upon a novel data set of real estate transactions from Miami-Dade County, Florida; Franklin County, Ohio; and King County, Washington. We are able to separately identify male same-sex couple homebuyers and female same-sex couple homebuyers at the property level by predicting the homebuyers’ sex based on homebuyers’ full names. To show that the method suggested in this paper to identify members of the LGBTQ+ community is identifying same-sex couple homebuyers, we compare distributions from the Decennial Census and look at summary statistics of houses purchased by same-sex couples. As hurricane destruction has become more frequent and more dramatic, it is important to understand how communities respond to this damage. Chapter 3 explores how the selling price of houses responds to spillover effects of living near houses with hurricane-induced damages and repairs. These spillover effects are investigated in Punta Gorda, Florida, which was hit by Hurricane Charley, a Category 4 hurricane, in August 2004. Results indicate that house prices temporarily increase after the hurricane. Nearby damaged houses have no statistically significant effect. Nearby houses that were repaired to a larger square footage have a positive spillover effect while all other repaired houses, like those that do not increase their square footage, have a negative spillover effect on housing prices.
USA
Van Hook, Jennifer; Frisco, Michelle L.; Graham, Carlyn E.
2020.
Signs of the End of the Paradox? Cohort Shifts in Smoking and Obesity and the Hispanic Life Expectancy Advantage.
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Hispanics’ paradoxical life expectancy advantage over whites has largely been attributed to Hispanics’ lower smoking prevalence. Yet across birth cohorts, smoking prevalence has declined for whites and Hispanics, and Hispanics’ obesity prevalence has increased substantially. Our analysis uses data from the 1989 to 2014 National Health Interview Survey and Linked Mortality files to investigate whether these trends could lead Hispanics to lose their comparative mortality advantage. Simulations suggest that foreign-born Hispanics’ life expectancy advantage over whites is likely to persist because cohort trends in smoking and obesity largely offset each other. However, U.S.-born Hispanics’ life expectancy advantage over whites is likely to diminish or disappear entirely as the 1970s and 1980s birth cohorts age due to increases in obesity prevalence and the relatively high mortality risks of those who are obese. Results have important implications for understanding the future of immigrants’ health advantages and ethnic disparities in health.
NHIS
Rane, Madhura S
2020.
Investigation Of Pertussis Resurgence In King County, Washington Chair Of The Reading Committee.
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Introduction: Pertussis or “whooping cough” is an infectious disease caused by bacterium Bordetella pertussis. Despite widespread vaccination since the 1950s, it continues to cause epidemics in several countries. In fact, in the last three decades, many countries with high vaccination coverage have reported a resurgence in pertussis activity. Understanding the factors that led to pertussis resurgence and its persistence is important because pertussis remains a leading cause of infant mortality worldwide with close to 100,000 deaths annually (WHO, 2018). This study examines the role of the Diphtheria-Tetanus-acellular-Pertussis (DTaP) vaccination coverage and vaccine failure in pertussis resurgence and persistence. Specifically, we described long-term, fine-scale spatio-temporal trends of pertussis incidence and characterized spatial dependence in pertussis cases within King County (Aim 1); estimated the association between pertusi sis epidemics and area-level vaccination coverage and socio-demographic factors (Aim 2); assessed the role of vaccine schedules and vaccine timeliness on pertussis incidence (Aim 3); estimated the population-level effects of acellular pertussis vaccines (Aim 4); and estimated waning effects of the acellular pertussis vaccine using Schoenfeld residuals (Aim 5) Methods: We obtained pertussis incidence data for all ages for the period between 1999 and 2017 from the Communicable Disease and Immunizations Department within Public Health Seattle and King County. Diphtheria-Tetanus-acellular-Pertussis (DTaP) vaccination records, as well as records for all pediatric vaccinations, for all children born or living in King County, WA, between 2008 and 2017 were obtained from the Washington State Immunization Information System (WA-IIS) maintained by the Washington State Department of Health. All five aims use information from either one or both datasets. These datasets were linked using probabilistic linkage methods to obtain DTaP vaccination and pertussis status for the study participants. Information on census-tract level and school-district level socio-demographic factors was obtained from the US Census and the National Historical Geographic Information System (NHGIS) databases. Aim 1 included pertussis incidence data for all ages reported between 1999 and 2017 and used Bayesian hierarchical disease mapping models and the tau statistic to characterize spatio-temporal dependence between pertussis cases. The Kulldorff spatial scan statistic was used to examine location of pertussis clusters and their overlap with clusters of non-medical vaccine exemptions. For aim 2, we used pertussis incidence data for all ages reported between 2010 to 2017 and estimated annual school-district level vaccination coverage as proportion of 19-35 month old children who received ≥ 4 DTaP doses using immunization data from the WA-IIS. Association between pertussis epidemics and vaccination coverage and other socio-demographic factors was estimated using epidemicendemic models and the ecological vaccine model. For aims 3, 4, and 5, we used the linked dataset with individual level vaccination and pertussis status for all children born ii or living in King County between 2008 and 2017. Log binomial models were used to estimate the association between DTaP vaccination schedules and age-specific pertussis incidence. Cox proportional hazards models were used to estimate vaccine direct effects among children older than 3 months and population-level effects among children older than 7 months. Schoenfeld residuals obtained from fitting Cox proportional hazards models were used to estimate waning of vaccine effectiveness among 5-9 year old children. Results: There was no overall increase in pertussis incidence between 1999 and 2017, but we found spatial dependence between pertussis cases at very small spatial scales. Pertussis clusters overlapped with clusters of vaccine refusal suggesting an association between the two. We estimated the vaccine effectiveness of DTaP vaccine to be 83% (95% credible intervals: 63%, 95%) using the ecological vaccine model but found no correlation between the effective reproduction number of pertussis and area-level vaccine coverage. The association between area-level under-vaccination and pertussis epidemics was statistically significant as estimated using the epidemic-endemic models (adjusted Relative Risk, aRR: 2.76; 95% confidence interval: 1.44, 16.6), suggesting areas with low vaccination coverage had higher risk of experiencing pertussis outbreaks. We found significant association between under-vaccination and age-specific pertussis risk, but a short delay of a few weeks in receiving DTaP doses did not significantly alter pertussis risk. Using the Cox proportional hazards models and DTaP vaccine series as a timedependent exposure, direct vaccine effects were estimated to be 72% (95% CI: 65%, 77%) comparing vaccinated time at risk to under-vaccinated time at risk for the entire cohort. The estimated indirect protection for the 3-dose primary series was 45% (95% CI: 1%, 70%), total protection was 94% (95% CI: 91%, 96%), and overall protection was 42.2% (95% CI: 19%, 60%). We found no evidence of waning of vaccine effectiveness after 5 doses of DTaP among 5-9 year old children. Vaccine effectiveness remained high at 83% (95% CI: 39%, 95%) four years after vaccination with 5th DTaP dose. iii Conclusion: Our findings show that although pertussis transmission is ongoing in King County, there is no clear evidence for resurgence between 1999 and 2017 as seen in the rest of the country. We found that the current schedule for the 5-dose childhood DTaP vaccine series effectively reduces pertussis risk and adding or delaying booster doses may not be required. We estimated direct vaccine effectiveness (VE) of the acellular pertussis vaccine using different models in this dissertation and found that the estimates were high and consistent across analyses. However, direct VE estimates from the statistical models used in this dissertation do not provide information about mechanism of vaccine failure (i.e. leaky vs. all-or-none). We found significant vaccine indirect effects for the acellular vaccine suggesting that vaccination with DTaP may contribute to herd effects, although we cannot deduce from these data if the indirect effects are due to decrease in susceptibility to infection or decrease in infectiousness after exposure among vaccinated individuals. We found no evidence of rapid waning of vaccine effects among children who were fully vaccinated with 5 doses of DTaP, suggesting that immediate waning of vaccine effects is likely not the mechanism of vaccine failure for the DTaP vaccine. Understanding the nature of the acellular pertussis vaccine failure in shaping the epidemiology of pertussis is challenging and deserves continued research.
NHGIS
Connor, Dylan Shane
2020.
Class Background, Reception Context, and Intergenerational Mobility: A Record Linkage and Surname Analysis of the Children of Irish Immigrants.
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Proponents of restrictive immigration policies often claim that families arriving with fewer skills and resources will struggle economically. This claim is challenging to test as lower-skilled migrants also tend to face greater discrimination, exclusion, and obstacles in the United States. I use unique multigenerational data on Irish Americans in the early-twentieth century, before and after migration, to directly study how the economic origins of Irish families and the reception context they faced in the United States affected economic attainment in the second generation. This analysis finds weak associations between economic background in Ireland and second-generation earnings in the United States. The schooling context and ethnic communities of settlement locations in the United States, in contrast, have strong effects on the second generation. These findings indicate that the experiences of immigrant families in the United States may be more important for second-generation attainment than the skills and resources brought from the origin country in the immigrant generation.
USA
Simson, Rebecca
2020.
Statistical sources and African post-colonial economic history: Notes from the (digital) archives.
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While interest in African economic history has grown rapidly in recent years, the continent’s post-colonial past remains understudied. This is at least in part because of the decline and fragmentation in the publication of economic statistics after decolonization, which has limited the type and breadth of quantitative analysis that can be undertaken. Nonetheless, this note argues that there are comparatively untapped post-colonial data sources that could enrich the study of the continent’s economic history. The note surveys some of these sources and data repositories and provides advice, based on the author’s own experiences, on how to utilize them.
IPUMSI
Furtado, Delia; Ortega, Francesc
2020.
Does Immigration Improve Quality of Care in Nursing Homes?.
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The growing healthcare needs of baby boomers require significant increases in the number or productivity of healthcare workers. This paper explores how immigrants may fill these gaps in nursing homes. First, we show that immigrant inflows are associated with reduced wages of lower skilled nurses along with increases in their employment. We then show that more immigrant labor leads to fewer falls among residents and improvements in other measures of quality of care. We also find that only in competitive nursing home markets is there a link between immigrant inflows and the quality of care provided in nursing homes
USA
Boyd, Robert L.
2020.
Gender, race, and unpaid work in family-owned businesses during the Great Depression.
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Studies of labor market distress show that dislocated workers often react to joblessness by starting their own small enterprises. But these studies overlook the possibility that such persons may also react by becoming unpaid workers in family-owned businesses. The present study addresses this oversight, examining the extent to which women responded to joblessness in the Great Depression by becoming unpaid workers in family-owned proprietorships. Regression analyses of Census data show that white women’s employment as unpaid family workers made a small yet noteworthy contribution to the number of whites who used retail enterprise to obtain relief from joblessness. However, the analyses also reveal that unpaid work and self-employment made no contribution to blacks’ efforts to find shelter from labor market distress. These results advance our understanding of how resource disadvantage limited blacks’ capacity to use survivalist entrepreneurship as a means of overcoming joblessness during the Great Depression.
USA
Dee, Edward Christopher; Muralidhar, Vinayak; Butler, Santino S.; Yu, Zizi; Sha, Sybil T.; Mahal, Brandon A.; Nguyen, Paul L.; Sanford, Nina N.
2020.
General and Health-Related Internet Use Among Cancer Survivors in the United States: A 2013–2018 Cross-Sectional Analysis.
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Background: A significant proportion of cancer survivors endorse ongoing health information needs and may use the internet to access information.We assessed patterns and predictors of general and healthspecific internet use among cancer survivors. Methods: Using data from the National Health Interview Survey (NHIS), which was administered in 2013 through 2018, for adults reporting a cancer diagnosis, sample weight-adjusted estimates defined prevalence and multivariable logistic regressions defined adjusted odds ratios (aORs) of general and health-specific internet use, adjusting for relevant sociodemographic covariates, including healthcare satisfaction as the primary independent variable. The analysis for health-specific internet use was also repeated including a sex (female vs male)*healthcare satisfaction (very satisfied/somewhat satisfied vs somewhat dissatisfied/very dissatisfied) interaction term. Results: Among 12,970 survivors of cancer, general and health-specific internet use increased from 2013 to 2018 (from63.2%to 70.8%and from46.8%to 52.2%, respectively; P,.05 for both). Survivors who were very dissatisfied with healthcare were more likely to use the internet for health information compared with those who were very satisfied (59.5%vs 48.0%; aOR, 1.78; 95%CI, 1.20-2.64; P5.004). Younger age, female sex, higher educational attainment, and higher socioeconomic status were all associated with increased reported use of the internet for both general and health-specific purposes (P,.001 for all). There was a significant sex*healthcare satisfaction interaction (P5.009) such that for female survivors, healthcare dissatisfaction was associated with higher odds of health-specific internet use (61.4% vs 52.5%; P,.001; men, P5.97). No association was found between healthcare satisfaction and general internet use (P5.42). Conclusions: The increasing proportion of survivors of cancer using the internet for health-specific information may be associated with selfreported dissatisfaction with healthcare. Efforts are needed to improve both access to the internet and the quality of cancer-relevant online health information, and to enhance patients' online health literacy.
NHIS
Iqbal, Meesha; Fatmi, Zafar; Khan, Kausar; Jumani, Yusra; Amjad, Neelma; Nafees, Asaad
2020.
Malnutrition and food insecurity in child labourers in Sindh, Pakistan: a cross-sectional study.
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Background: Child labour is common in low-and middle-income countries. Although child labour is widespread in Pakistan, no data are available on the health of child labourers. Aims: This study aimed to assess the food security, food intake and nutritional status of child labourers aged 5–14 years working in lower Sindh, Pakistan. Methods: Child labourers aged 5–14 years working in agriculture, manufacturing industry, hotels and restaurants, domestic work and migrant child labourers working in vegetable markets were recruited using a respondent-driven sampling technique. Sociodemographic and nutrition information was obtained by an interviewer questionnaire. The children’s height and weight were measured to assess stunting (height-for-age z scores less than –2) and wasting (weightfor-height z scores less than –2). Results: A total of 634 child labourers were included: 184 worked in agriculture, 120 in industry, 67 in hotels and restaurants, 63 in domestic work and 200 were migrant child labourers. Overall, 15.5% of the children were stunted and 30.0% were wasted. The prevalence of stunting was highest in children working in agriculture (27.2%) and the prevalence of wasting was highest in migrant child workers (35.0%). About half the children (51.1%) were suffering from food insecurity. Food inadequacy was mainly in consumption of vegetables/potatoes (98% of the children had inadequate intake), legumes (97%), fruits (96%), meat/ poultry (95%) and milk/dairy products (82%). Conclusion: The nutritional status and food insecurity of the child labourers of Pakistan are comparable with the general population, highlighting the grave situation of the country with regard to food security.
NHIS
Mancino, Antonella; Mullins, Joseph
2020.
Frictional Adjustment to Income Tax Incentives: An Application to the Earned Income Tax Credit.
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In this paper we consider the behavioral response of workers to changes in tax incentives when faced with hours constraints and search frictions. In this setting, workers can respond by transitioning into employment, transitioning to new jobs, or accepting second jobs. We provide empirical evidence that all three adjustments are positive and significant in the response of single mothers to the Earned Income Tax Credit. We then estimate a frictional search model with hours constraints and multiple job holding that fits our empirical evidence, and use the model to explore the positive and normative implications of these frictions for tax policy analysis. We find that long-run employment elasticities are up to 73% larger than the short-run elasticity, which has direct implications for welfare analysis using deadweight loss tax formulae. We use the model to demonstrate that the degree of search frictions in a labor market, as measured by contact rates and job destruction rates, directly affects the welfare gains from the introduction of the EITC in addition to other counterfactual tax credit schedules.
CPS
Fox, Liana; Glassman, Brian, E; Pacas, José
2020.
The Supplemental Poverty Measure using the American Community Survey.
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The Census Bureau annually releases Supplemental Poverty Measure (SPM) estimates using data from the Annual Social and Economic Supplement of the Current Population Survey (CPS ASEC). However, since the Census Bureau recommends the use of the American Community Survey (ACS) for poverty estimates for sub-national geographic units, it is important to explore how the SPM can be estimated from ACS data. The challenge in this endeavor is that the ACS is missing a number of key data elements required to produce SPM estimates, including some program participation data, the value of Supplemental Nutritional Assistance Program (SNAP) benefits, taxes paid and credits received, child care expenses, medical out of pocket expenditures and detailed relationship data. This paper explores how these data limitations might be overcome and extends previous research at the Census Bureau on a methodology to produce SPM estimates using ACS data. This analysis provides the first set of national and state level estimates of the SPM derived from the ACS for the years 2014 to 2017. This paper has two main purposes. The first is to lay out in detail the methodology used to create the ACS SPM and how this methodology differs from the CPS ASEC SPM. The second is to present and discuss ACS SPM results by state and over time, evaluate how individual elements affect the ACS SPM, and compare the ACS SPM to the ACS OPM and the CPS ASEC SPM.
USA
Deming, David J; Noray, Kadeem
2020.
Earnings Dynamics, Changing Job Skills, and STEM Careers.
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This article studies the impact of changing job skills on career earnings dynamics for college graduates. We measure changes in the skill content of occupations between 2007 and 2019 using detailed job descriptions from a near universe of online job postings. We then develop a simple model where the returns to work experience are a race between on-the-job learning and skill obsolescence. Obsolescence lowers the return to experience, flattening the age-earnings profile in faster-changing careers. We show that the earnings premium for college graduates majoring in technology-intensive subjects such as computer science, engineering, and business declines rapidly, and that these graduates sort out of faster-changing occupations as they gain experience. JEL Codes: J24, I26.
USA
Xu, Wenjian
2020.
Essays on Firm Dynamics.
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Firm size distributions and firm dynamics have important implications for macroeconomic outcomes, particularly aggregate productivity through effects on allocation of human and physical capital. This dissertation evaluates the mediating role of firm size distribution on the allocation of human capital over the business cycle, and identifies the drivers behind firm dynamics across regions. Over eight million jobs were lost in the Great Recession, creating widespread economic hardship. The first chapter documents a novel and robust empirical regularity, that highly concentrated local labor markets experienced larger employment declines during the Great Recession. I provide an explanation using a model with heterogeneous firms where recessions arise as an aggregate consequence of idiosyncratic firm shocks. My model predicts a larger decline in expected employment when the market has a higher initial concentration level. The key idea is that relatively small firms are unable to absorb the large number of workers that get displaced when relatively big firms are hit by idiosyncratic shocks, as the absorption is limited by decreasing returns to scale (at the firm) and an upward-sloping labor supply (in the local labor market). I undertake a series of empirical tests to rule out alternative explanations, and show that large employment losses in concentrated labor markets are not driven by highly concentrated industry-locations being hit harder during the Great Recession, having thinner labor markets, having more large firms, or having high firm leverage ratios. In the second chapter, I explore the drivers of new-firm creation, focusing on unintended consequences of unemployment insurance on the propensity of unemployed individuals to form new businesses. Exploiting staggered changes in benefit generosity across states and over time, I find that higher unemployment insurance (UI) benefits lower the probability that an unemployed person will become self-employed and delay such a transition. These effects are concentrated in the formation of unincorporated business. The negative effects are smaller in states offering a self-employment assistance program that allows the unemployed to collect benefits while starting their own business. The last chapter studies how the adoption of product line exception (PLE) to successor non-liability, a plausibly exogenous mechanism that introduces a friction into the corporate transactions market, affects firm acquisitions and growth. We find that adoption of PLE has a negative effect on the propensity of being acquired, and a positive effect on closure rate, especially among manufacturing establishments. In line with the predictions of our theoretical model, we find stark differences in effects across young vs older firms. In particular, the probability of acquisition, as well as closure, increases for young manufacturing establishments after PLE is adopted. In contrast, the impact on older establishments is more in line with the overall effects (lower acquisition and higher closure propensity), albeit statistically insignificant. Firm level regressions show slower growth, greater exit and lower entry rates following adoption of PLE for manufacturing firms. Together, these results suggest that the friction from adoption of PLE has material effects in the manufacturing sector including reduction in reallocation of assets through acquisitions, shift in the focus of corporate transactions to younger incumbents, and reduction in firm growth, entry and survival.
USA
CPS
Total Results: 22543