In this paper we investigate potential changes which may have occurred over the last two decades in the probability mass of the right tail of the wage distribution, through the analysis of the corresponding tail index. In specific, a conditional tail index estimator is introduced which explicitly allows for right tail censoring (top-coding), which is a feature of the widely used current population survey (CPS), as well as of other surveys. Ignoring the top-coding may lead to inconsistent estimates of the tail index and to under or over statements of inequality and of its evolution over time. Thus, having a tail index estimator that explicitly accounts for this sample characteristic is of importance to better understand and compute the tail index dynamics in the censored right tail of the wage distribution. The contribution of this paper is threefold: i) we introduce a conditional tail index estimator that explicitly handles the top-coding problem, and evaluate its finite sample performance and compare it with competing methods; ii) we highlight that the factor values used to adjust the top-coded wage have changed over time and depend on the characteristics of individuals, occupations and industries, and propose suitable values; and iii) we provide an in-depth empirical analysis of the dynamics of the US wage distribution’s right tail using the public-use CPS database from 1992 to 2017.

The Opportunity Atlas (OA) is an innovative data set that ranks neighborhoods according to children’s adult outcomes in several domains, including income. Conceptually, outcomes offer new evidence about neighborhood effects when measured in isolation from neighborhood sorting. This paper shows that neighborhood sorting contributes to OA estimates. We document cases in which small sample sizes and changes over time can explain disagreements between OA rankings and those based on contemporaneous variables. Our results suggest caution for interpretations of the OA data set at a granular level, particularly for predictions about the outcomes of black children in high-income neighborhoods.

Importance. Increased work requirements have been proposed throughout federal safety net programs, including the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP). Participation in SNAP is associated with reduced food insecurity and improved health. Objectives. To determine whether SNAP work requirements are associated with lower rates of program participation and to examine whether there are racial/ethnic disparities or spillover effects for people with disabilities, who are not intended to be affected by work requirements. Design, Setting, and Participants. This nationally representative, pooled cross-sectional study examined how changes in SNAP work requirements at state and local levels in the US are associated with changes in food voucher program participation. The study combined information on state and local SNAP work requirements with repeated cross-sections from the 2012 through 2017 American Community Survey (with outcomes covering 2013 to 2017). The analytical approaches were based on difference-in-difference and triple-difference methods, after controlling for other economic and social factors. The sample included low-income adults without dependents, stratified by racial/ethnic group and disability status. The study also included parents who would otherwise meet work requirement criteria as a comparison group to estimate triple-difference models. This accounted for otherwise unobserved factors affecting trends in SNAP participation within local areas. Data were analyzed from January 2019 through March 2020. Exposure. Residence in areas where SNAP work requirements apply. Main Outcomes and Measures. The primary outcome is SNAP participation measured by whether anyone in the household received food vouchers at any point over the prior 12 months. Results. The final analytical sample included 866 000 low-income adults (weighted mean [SE] age, 33.6 [0.01] years; 42.5% [SE, 0.07%] men). The racial/ethnic breakdown was 56.5% (SE, 0.07%) non-Hispanic white respondents, 19.4% (SE, 0.06%) non-Hispanic black respondents, 17.7% (SE, 0.06%) Hispanic respondents, 2.5% (SE, 0.02%) Asian respondents, and 3.9% (SE, 0.03%) respondents of other or multiple races. In final triple-difference models, work requirements were associated with a 4.0 percentage point decrease in participation (95% CI, –0.048 to –0.032; P < .001) for childless adults without disability, equivalent to a 21.2% reduction in SNAP participation (95% CI, –25.5% to –17.0%). For childless adults with disability, work requirements were associated with a 4.0 percentage point reduction (95% CI, –0.058 to –0.023; P < .001), equivalent to 7.8% fewer SNAP participants with disability (95% CI, –11.2% to –4.4%). When the final models were stratified by race/ethnicity, benefit reductions were larger for non-Hispanic black adults (7.2 percentage points; 95% CI, –0.092 to –0.051; P < .001) and Hispanic adults (5.5 percentage points; 95% CI, –0.072 to –0.038; P < .001) than for non-Hispanic white adults (2.6 percentage points; 95% CI, –0.035 to –0.016; P < .001). Conclusions and Relevance Because of the association of SNAP with food security and health, work requirements that lead to benefit loss may create nutritional and health harm for low-income Americans. These findings suggest that there may be racially disparate consequences and unintended harm for those with disability.

The expansion of school choice in recent years has potentially generated demographic imbalances between traditional public schools and their residential attendance zones. Demographic imbalances emerge from selective opting out, when families of certain racial and/or ethnic backgrounds disproportionately choose not to enroll in their neighborhood-based public schools. In this article, we use a unique data set of school attendance zones in 21 large U.S. school districts to show how changes in neighborhood conditions and school choice options influence race-specific enrollments in locally zoned public elementary schools from 2000 to 2010. We find that the presence of more school-choice options generates racial imbalances between public elementary schools and their surrounding neighborhoods, but this association differs by type of choice-based alternative. Private schools, on average, reduce the presence of non-Hispanic white students in locally zoned schools, whereas charter schools may reduce the presence of nonwhite students in locally zoned schools. Increases in neighborhood-school racial imbalances from 2000 to 2010 were concentrated in neighborhoods undergoing increases in socioeconomic status, suggesting that parents’ residential and school decisions are dynamic and sensitive to changing neighborhood conditions. Selective opting out has implications for racial integration in schools and the distribution of familial resources across educational contexts.

We used differences in state school policies as natural experiments to evaluate the joint influence of educational quantity and quality on late-life physical and mental health. Using US census microsample data, historical measures of state compulsory schooling and school quality (term length, student-teacher ratio, and attendance rates) were combined via regression modeling on a scale corresponding to years of education (Policy Predicted Years of Education [PPYEd]). PPYEd values were linked to individual-level records for 8,920 black and 14,605 white participants aged 45+ in the REasons for Geographic and Racial Differences in Stroke study (2003-2007). Linear and quantile regression models estimated the association between PPYEd and Physical Component Summary (PCS) and Mental Component Summary (MCS) from the Short Form Health Survey. Models examined interactions by race and included adjustment for sex, birth year, state-of-residence at age 6, and year of study enrollment. Higher PPYEd was associated with better median PCS (β=1.28; 95%CI: 0.40,1.49) and possibly better median MCS (β=0.46; 95%CI:-0.01,0.94). Effect estimates were higher in blacks than whites (PCS x race interaction-β=0.22; 95%CI:-0.62,1.05) (MCS x race interaction-β=0.18; 95%CI:-0.08,0.44). When incorporating both school quality and duration, this quasi-experimental analysis found mixed evidence for a causal effect of education on health decades later.

This paper examines assets and unmet needs of diverse older adults and highlights the need for programs and policies that address the social determinants of health. The United States is undergoing an unprecedented demographic shift, becoming increasingly diverse and aging rapidly. Given these changing demographics, it is important to understand the strengths and needs of our diverse population of older adults. This study captures perspectives of diverse service providers who work with older adults in communities, to identify existing assets as well as unmet needs and challenges facing diverse older adults in Minnesota. Qualitative data were collected using key informant interviews with community-based service providers (N=15) as part of a year-long engagement project. Participants were purposively selected to represent African American, East African, American Indian, Southeast Asian, Latino, and lesbian, gay, bisexual, and transgender (LGBT) communities. Interviews were recorded, transcribed verbatim, and analyzed using Braun and Clarke’s approach to thematic analysis. Results indicate a number of assets supporting Minnesota’s diverse older adults. Assets of cultural communities include culturally specific services, faith communities, and close-knit families. Assets of older adults include their cultural and historical knowledge, wisdom, experience, and resilience. Despite the many assets supporting diverse older adults, results indicate seven primary categories of unmet needs: (1) health (2) healthcare, (3) transportation, (4) housing, (5) education, (6) social support, and (7) financial security. All unmet needs sub-themes address health or social determinants of health, indicating the need for a broad range of policies and programs. As the U.S. population grows increasingly older and more diverse, it is critical that these unmet needs are addressed to ensure equity for aging well.

Child care is foundational to the economy. Without it, many parents cannot work or reach their career potential. As child care programs rapidly closed in the COVID-19 pandemic, the degree to which work is enabled by child care became obvious,1 particularly for the 14 percent of workers parenting a child under age 6.2 Analyses of data collected in May and June 2020 found that 13 percent of working parents lost a job or reduced their hours due to a lack of child care.3 Today, the pandemic has made broadly evident what was already clear to America’s parents, employers, and care providers: the nation’s early childhood care system is fragile. Working parents face intersecting challenges as they seek high-quality, affordable care that is suitable for the ages of their children and available when and where they need it. One in four families paying for care spend more than 10 percent of their income on that care,4 well above the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services’ suggested affordability threshold of 7 percent.5 Half of Americans live in a child care desert,6 where access to formal quality care is essentially absent. And for parents living in a remote place, working nonstandard hours or having multiple young children, options are even more limited. As pandemic-related strains to the child care system unfold atop this shaky foundation, we outline existing and new challenges, and we highlight possibilities for repairing the broken systems caring for our nation’s youngest children.

In this paper we discuss some strands of the recent literature on the evolution of gender gaps and their driving forces. We will revisit key stylized facts about gender gaps in employment and wages in a few high-income countries. We then discuss and build on one gender-neutral force behind the rise in female employment, namely the rise of the service economy. This is also related to the polarization of female employment and to the geographic distribution of jobs, which is expected to be especially relevant for female employment prospects. We finally turn to currently debated causes of remaining gender gaps and discuss existing evidence on labor market consequences of women's heavier caring responsibilities in the household. In particular, we highlight how women's stronger distaste for commuting time may feed into gender pay gaps by making women more willing to trade off steeper wage gains for shorter commutes.

Limited transportation options constrain what employment, educational, and social opportunities refugees and other transport-disadvantaged populations can pursue. With a theoretical basis in transport exclusion theory, this study examined the transportation patterns of refugees in the Research Triangle of North Carolina using a multi-language survey that builds directly on the existing research of Bose (2014) and Farber et al (2018). Findings confirm that refugees’ travel behaviors differ significantly from that of the general population, with 67% using public transit as their primary mode of transport. In contrast, 90% of respondents identified private vehicles as their preferred mode of transportation. Mode use patterns shift as refugees’ time since arrival increases, confirming the findings of other studies regarding the travel behaviors of non-native residents over time. Household dependency ratios provide an additional mode-correlated variable, with higher dependency ratios (the ratio of household members under 18 and over 65 years to the number working-age adults) associated with transit use, and lower dependency ratios associated with private vehicle use. Mode usage was also directly related to earning capacity in both the refugee sample and the broader population in Durham and Orange counties of North Carolina. Based on these findings, refugee service providers and transportation researchers should use dependency ratios as a mechanism to identify households who may be transport disadvantaged. This pilot study should be replicated at a larger scale, using and expanding the multi-language survey tool to test the validity of these findings in other contexts.

Introduction Tobacco control programs and policies reduce tobacco use and prevent health and economic harms. The majority of tobacco control programs and policies in the United States are implemented at local and state levels. Yet the literature on state-level initiatives reports a limited set of outcomes. To facilitate decision-making that is increasingly focused on costs, we provide estimates of a broader set of measures of the impact of tobacco control policy, including smoking prevalence, disease events, deaths, medical costs, productivity and tobacco tax revenues, using the experience of Minnesota as an example. Methods Using the HealthPartners Institute’s ModelHealth™: Tobacco MN microsimulation, we assessed the impact of the stream of tobacco control expenditures and cigarette price increases from 1998 to 2017. We simulated 1.3 million individuals representative of the Minnesota population. Results The simulation estimated that increased expenditures on tobacco control above 1997 levels prevented 38,400 cancer, cardiovascular, diabetes and respiratory disease events and 4,100 deaths over 20 years. Increased prices prevented 14,600 additional events and 1,700 additional deaths. Both the net increase in tax revenues and the reduction in medical costs were greater than the additional investments in tobacco control. Conclusion Combined, the policies address both short-term and long-term goals to reduce the harms of tobacco by helping adults who wish to quit smoking and deterring youth from starting to smoke. States can pay for initial investments in tobacco control through tax increases and recoup those investments through reduced expenditures on medical care.

This thesis examines the selection of immigrants and their impact on the receiving economy. After an introductory first chapter, I present an analysis of Borjas model of selection extended to multiple locations. In this extension, selection is determined by earnings’ dispersion alone only for the most and least disperse locations. Therefore, it highlights that, what determines selection, is the ranking of locations rather than the relative dispersion of earnings between home and destination. Using interstate US migration, I provide stochastic dominance relations on pre-migration earnings that support the implications of the model. These give a stronger test for selection than selection on means. The third chapter presents evidence on the effect of immigrants on aggregate labour productivity in the UK. I exploit variation on past settlement of natives across industries and regions to estimate the effect of immigrants on labour productivity. My estimates show that increasing the relative supply of immigrant labour has a positive effect on labour productivity. I show that part of this effect works through accumulation of capital stocks and provide evidence suggesting that immigrants trigger the development of technologies that complement them. Thus, I show that altering the labour mix produces effects that go beyond simple differences in marginal products and affects the accumulation of other inputs and technologies. In the fourth chapter, Greta Morando and I exploit cross-cohort variation within majors and universities to estimate the effect of foreign peers on native students. We show that increasing the share of EU students lowers the probability of entering a university major. But, conditional on university and major, foreign peer effects on educational and early labour market outcomes are mild. Therefore, our research shows that there are no large foreign peer effects in higher education. However, it also suggests that there is scope for foreign students affecting natives’ outcomes by shaping the universities and majors natives attend.

Introduction States and municipalities are increasingly restricting tobacco sales to those under age-21, in an effort to reduce youth and young adult smoking. However, the effectiveness of such policies remains unclear, particularly when implemented locally. Methods Analyses use 2011 - 2016 data from the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System’s Selected Metropolitan/Micropolitan Area Risk Trends dataset. Difference-in-differences and triple-difference regressions estimate the relationship between local tobacco-21 policies and smoking among 18 to 20 year-olds living in MMSAs (metropolitan/micropolitan statistical areas). Results Current smoking rates fell from 16.5 percent in 2011 to 8.9 percent in 2016 among 18-20 year-olds in these data. Regressions indicate that a tobacco-21 policy covering one’s entire MMSA yields an approximately 3.1 percentage point reduction in 18 to 20 year-olds’ likelihoods of smoking [CI: -0.0548, -0.0063]. Accounting for partial policy exposure — tobacco-21 laws implemented in some but not all jurisdictions within an MMSA — this estimate implies that the average exposed 18 to 20 year-old experienced a 1.2 percentage point drop in their likelihood of being a smoker at interview relative to unexposed respondents of the same age, all else equal. Conclusions Local tobacco-21 policies yield a substantive reduction in smoking among 18 to 20 year-olds living in metropolitan and micropolitan statistical areas. This finding provides empirical support for efforts to raise the tobacco purchasing age to 21 as a means to reduce young adult smoking. Moreover, it suggests that state laws preempting local tobacco-21 policies may impede public health. Implications While states and municipalities are increasingly restricting tobacco sales to under-21-year-olds, such policies’ effectiveness remains unclear, particularly when implemented locally. Using quasi-experimental methods, this paper provides what may be the first evidence that sub-state tobacco-21 laws reduce smoking among 18 to 20 year-olds. Specifically, considering metropolitan and micropolitan areas from 2011 to 2016, the average 18 to 20 year-old who was exposed to these policies exhibited a 1.2 percentage point drop in their likelihood of being a current established smoker, relative to those who were unexposed. These findings validate local tobacco-21 laws as a means to reduce young adult smoking.

We study the effect of state medical marijuana laws (MMLs) on workers' compensation (WC) claiming among adults. Medical marijuana is plausibly related to WC claiming by allowing improved symptom management, and thus reduced need for the benefit, among injured or ill workers. We use data on claiming drawn from the Annual Social and Economic supplement to the Current Population Survey over the period 1989 to 2012, coupled with a differences‐in‐differences design to provide the first evidence on this relationship. Our estimates show that, post MML, WC claiming declines, both the propensity to claim and the level of income from WC. These findings suggest that medical marijuana can allow workers to better manage symptoms associated with workplace injuries and illnesses and, in turn, reduce need for WC. However, the reductions in WC claiming post MML are very modest in size.

Sonless families may pose a gendered demographic dividend. As fertility declines, families with only daughters are likely to grow. In turn, patriarchal family systems may weaken when many families are unable to engage in patriarchal practices. I examine some of these theorized dynamics in India. Sonless families did grow as fertility declined, reaching 10 percent in India as a whole in 2015 and approaching 20 percent in states with earlier fertility declines. I also identify a substantial influence of children's sex on mothers’ expectations of old-age support. Using panel data from the India Human Development Survey, I compare women's expectations after they had children to earlier expectations when they did not yet have children. Women with sons kept or further embraced patriarchal expectations that a son would provide support. Sonless mothers largely gave up patriarchal expectations, turning to daughters or away from children altogether.

Which types of policies promote the social and political incorporation of immigrants? I address this question in the context of the Americanization movement, the concerted effort of state and non-state actors to culturally assimilate the large numbers of immigrants arriving to the US in the early 20th century. I offer a framework for conceptualizing the effects of integration policy packages, based on the relative role of incentives they offer and prescriptions they set for immigrant behavior. I illustrate the framework’s insights through the causal evaluation of different types of Americanization initiatives, using linked census records on the universe of the foreign-born between 1910 and 1930, and samples of the second generation between 1930 and 1960. Initiatives that increase the benefits of integration are successful in promoting citizenship acquisition and increasing language proficiency and rates of intermarriage with the native-born. Prescription-based policies instead are either ineffective or counterproductive in promoting integration.

We combine national administrative data on earnings and participation in subsidized housing to study how the demolition of 160 public housing projects—funded by the HOPE VI program—affected the adult labor market outcomes for 18,500 children. Our empirical strategy compares children exposed to the program to children drawn from thousands of non-demolished projects, adjusting for observable differences using a flexible estimator that combines features of matching and regression. We find that children who resided in HOPE VI projects earn 14% more at age 26 relative to children in comparable non-HOPE VI projects. These earnings gains are strongest for demolitions in large cities, particularly in neighborhoods with higher pre-demolition poverty rates and lower pre-demolition job accessibility. There is no evidence that the labor market gains are driven by improvements in household or neighborhood environments that promote human capital development in children. Rather, subsequent improvements in job accessibility represent a likely pathway for the results.

The Earned Income Tax Credit is a $67 billion tax expenditure that subsidizes 20% of all workers. Yet all prior analysis uses partial equilibrium assumptions on gross wages. I derive the general equilibrium incidence of wage subsidies and quantify the importance of EITC spillovers in three ways. I calculate the GE incidence of the 1993 and 2009 EITC expansions using new elasticity estimates. I contrast the incidence of counterfactual EITC and Welfare expansions. I quantify the effect of equalizing the EITC for workers with and without children. In all cases, I find spillovers are economically meaningful.

Introduction: Women with a history of gestational diabetes (GDM) are at increased risk for type 2 diabetes and thus require regular follow-up screening for diabetes; however, many women do not receive this screening, and in particular low-income women face disparities in receipt of recommended follow-up care. While these women may have limited access to healthcare following pregnancy, they may more regularly access social service programs that serve themselves or their young children. Leveraging these social service touchpoints could broaden opportunities to improve follow-up care receipt among women with a history of GDM. To describe these potential opportunities, we used national representative data to characterize diabetes screening needs among women with a history of GDM who access the Special supplemental nutrition program for Women, Infants and Children (WIC) or Head Start programming for their young children. Methods: We analyzed national representative data from the National Health Interview Survey from calendar years 2016 and 2017. Our analytic sample included women aged 18 to 45 years who were linked to at least one of their children in the dataset and who had a self-reported history of GDM but did not have prediabetes or diabetes. We examined the proportion of these women who accessed WIC or Head Start who did not report having testing for diabetes within the past 3 years. Results: Of 432 (representing 2,002,675 weighted) women meeting inclusion criteria, 21.7% accessed WIC and 8.7% Head Start. Nearly 1 in 10 women with a history of GDM in either group did not report recent diabetes screening. In sensitivity analyses that excluded likely pregnancy-related testing, 35.0% of women accessing WIC and 21.2% of those accessing Head Start had not had recent screening. Discussion: There is an unmet need for follow-up diabetes screening among women with a history of GDM who access WIC or Head Start services for their young children. Leveraging women's touch-points with these programs could enhance opportunities to improve recommended diabetes screening among a high-risk population. (J Am Board Fam Med 2020;33:616-619.)

Objective. The paper investigates the disparities in infant and child mortality in Nigeria over the last two decades. The major contribution of this study is to document the disparities in infant and child mortality in Nigeria at the state level. Methods. The paper employs both descriptive statistics, multivariate logistics regression, and multilevel logistics regression on data from IPUMS-Demographic and Health Surveys (IPUMS-DHS), 1990, 1999, 2003, 2008 and 2013 Version 5 datasets. The paper uses a multilevel logistic regression analysis on 216,049 observations nested within 1,766 clusters or neighborhoods in the 36 states and FCT, Abuja, Nigeria. Results. The paper finds that disparity in infant and child mortality is correlated to disparity in wealth, mother’s educational attainment, and access to health care in Nigeria. Additionally, the study finds wide disparities in both infant and child mortality among the 36 states and FCT, Abuja, Nigeria. Conclusion and policy implication. The paper finds evidence of clustering effect at both community and individual levels suggesting little difference in infant and child mortality within clusters. This is very significant when we connect the instability in certain states of Nigeria to the health of children in those states.

Introduction This study examined the relationship between military sexual assault and structural factors including base (e.g., base density) and community (e.g., economic deprivation) characteristics. Methods Data on military sexual assault against men and women for fiscal years 2013–2016 were drawn from Sexual Assault Prevention and Response Office's 2017 report, “Sexual Assault Received at Military Installations and Combat Areas of Interest.” Base information was pulled from fiscal years 2012 and 2013 Department of Defense's Base Structure Reports. Community-level information was drawn from 5-year American Community Survey estimates (2008–2012). Analyses were conducted in 2019. Negative binomial models were used to examine predictors of military sexual assault. Results Compared with civilian personnel, higher concentrations of military personnel on bases increased military sexual assault (incident rate ratio=1.01, p=0.025). Compared with Air Force–controlled installations, Navy and Marine bases were associated with higher military sexual assault prevalence (incident rate ratio=2.22, p<0.001; incident rate ratio=2.38, p<0.001, respectively). Community economic disadvantage was inversely related to military sexual assault (incident rate ratio=0.69, p=0.001), whereas residential mobility (incident rate ratio=1.07, p=0.002), percentage of racial/ethnic minorities (incident rate ratio=1.02, p=0.024 black; incident rate ratio=1.03, p<0.001 Hispanic), and percentage of residents who are veterans (incident rate ratio=1.13, p<0.001) were positively related to military sexual assault. Conclusions Military sexual assault prevalence is associated with the structural characteristics of military installations and characteristics of the communities in which these installations are located. Findings suggest that further research on structural predictors of military sexual assault is needed and prevention programs and services may benefit from more community engagement.