This study aims to identify broad conceptual gaps in the field of terrorism studies, beginning with those of government motivated research, that have prevented the establishment of a unified, efficient system of achieving the disengagement of U.S. identity-motivated violent terrorists. Current government motivated research categorizes terrorists either by ideology or a dominant weakness (e.g. lack of employment), assuming they have a causal relationship with engagement, and therefore, help us understand disengagement. This research informs the development of counter-terror programs. However, current academic (non-government) research shows that this causal relationship does not exist. This has resulted in extremely inefficient and unsustainable counter-terror government programs. This study suggests three key methodological changes for future studies working to understand how to achieve disengagement: Measure engagement and disengagement as developmental pathways, not discrete decisions; consider the context they are embedded in, and statistically analyze the new data for causal relationships between engagement and disengagement. Such relationships could serve as new characterizations of terrorists, and more accurately determine what resources are appropriate for each individual to achieve disengagement, improving counter-terror programs. These methodological changes are demonstrated in this paper through the examination of three case studies, but hold limited validity without a future large-n study.

The etiology behind the increasing incidence of early onset colorectal cancer (EOCRC) are incompletely elucidated, but could be attributed in part to lifestyle factors. We assessed the association between obesity and colorectal cancer (CRC) in younger versus older adults in the National Health Institute Survey. Multivariable logistic regression defined adjusted odds ratios (AORs) and associated 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for CRC including an age (< vs. ≥50 years) *BMI (< vs. ≥30.0 kg/m2) interaction term. Among 583,511 study participants with a total of 3,173 CRC cases, there was a significant age*BMI interaction term (P=0.02) such that for participants aged 18–49 years, BMI ≥30.0 kg/m2 was associated with diagnosis of CRC (34.1% vs. 27.4%, AOR 1.39, 95% CI: 1.00–1.92) but not for participants aged ≥50 (29.6% vs. 31.4%, AOR 0.93, 95% CI: 0.85–1.03). Obese BMI appears to be associated with diagnosis of EOCRC, thus weight control by early adulthood, among other healthy lifestyle behaviors, could serve as potential risk reduction strategies for CRC.

We propose a three-step factor-flows simulation-based approach to forecast the duration distribution of unemployment. Step 1: estimate individual transition hazards across employment, temporary layoff, permanent layoff, quitter, entrant, and out of the labor force, with each hazard depending on an aggregate component as well as an individual's labor force history. Step 2: relate the aggregate components to the overall unemployment rate using a factor model. Step 3: combine the individual duration dependence, factor structure, and an auxiliary forecast of the unemployment rate to simulate a panel of individual labor force histories. Applying our approach to the July Blue Chip forecast of the COVID-19 recession, we project that 1.6 million workers laid off in April 2020 remain unemployed six months later. Total long-term unemployment rises thereafter and eventually reaches more 4.5 million individuals unemployed for more than 26 weeks and almost 2 million individuals unemployed for more than 46 weeks. Long-term unemployment rises even more in a more pessimistic recovery scenario, but remains below the level in the Great Recession due to a high amount of labor market churn.

Learning the true calorie content of fast food may induce consumers to change behavior, yet recent evidence is mixed on whether calorie labels cause consumers to order healthier meals. Especially for individuals for whom consumption of highly caloric fast-food is habitual, a rational response to calorie labeling may instead be to maintain consumption levels but increase physical activity. Using American Time Use Survey data from 2004 to 2012, we show that the 2008 New York City Calorie Labeling Mandate significantly improved several measures of physical activity, including overall metabolic equivalents of task units and minutes of sedentary activity. Our results translate to an average extra 28 calories burned per day or a 0.6kg weight decrease for the average person over one year. These results provide a plausible mechanism for calorie labeling mandates to lower obesity rates, which we demonstrate in the New York City context.

I apply the precariat class schema developed by Standing to the US workforce to illustrate an increased polarization between those who do and do not have quality jobs from 1980 to 2018. I use a decomposition of inequality to show that the precariat class structure explains a substantial and growing portion of income inequality. The precariat is typified by unstable, short-term, part-time, and benefit-free jobs. I find that that the precariat make up a large and growing share of the US workforce, while the “old” working class shrank precipitously. I also show that the demographics of the precariat and the old working class are substantially different in terms of race and gender.

In this study, we provide large-sample evidence on how corporate in-house human capital investments in accounting affect earnings management. We construct a dataset of more than 411,000 individual-years of in-house accountants between 2009 and 2015 and measure a firm’s accounting human capital based on the proportion of in-house accountants with Big N work experience and a CPA designation. We find that firms with higher accounting human capital have a lower probability of accounting irregularities, lower discretionary accruals, better internal control, and fewer unintentional accounting errors. The results hold when we control for potential endogeneity by using the staggered adoption of the CPA mobility law and the number of top accounting undergraduate programs as instrumental variables for accounting human capital. We further find that firms with higher accounting human capital exhibit stronger market reactions to earnings news and lower audit fees, suggesting that external stakeholders perceive these firms as having better financial reporting quality.

A very high percentage of sub-Saharan African college-graduate immigrants in the United States have college degrees in science, technology, engineering, and mathematics (STEM) disciplines compared with native-born college graduates. This study uses a pooled cross-section (2013–2018) from the American Community Survey to compare the distribution of undergraduate majors of sub-Saharan African immigrants and native-born college graduates. We estimate ordinary least square (OLS) earnings functions that include detailed college major variables. We find that undergraduate major area of study is a significant predictor of earnings and that there is an overrepresentation of sub-Saharan African immigrants with high-paying undergraduate majors. However, after controlling for human capital differences, college-educated African immigrants have not achieved pay equity with their native-born counterparts.

This paper documents the persistence of the Southern slave owning elite in political power after the end of the American Civil War. We draw on a database of Texan state legislators between 1860 and 1900 and link them to their or their ancestors’ slaveholdings in 1860. We then show that former slave owners made up more than half of nearly each legislature’s members until the late 1890s. Legislators with slave owning backgrounds differ systematically from those without, being more likely to represent the Democratic party and more likely to work in an agricultural occupation. Regional characteristics matter for this persistence, as counties with higher soil suitability for growing cotton on average elect more former slave owners.

How did industrialisation affect land use and residential patterns in cities of the nineteenth century? We use census data and GIS mapping techniques to analyse class segregation and changes to the spatial structure using the case of Uppsala, Sweden between 1880 and 1900. We find that there was a clear concentration of business activity in the central district and in proximity to the transportation hubs. Since these activities became more numerous but remained concentrated, they likely increased land values in the central areas of the city, inducing the lowest social classes to locate away from the centre. However, while these households were pushed out, it did not result in the type of class segregation we observe in many twentieth-century cities. Before the widespread use of transport technologies allowing populations to sprawl, city expansion in the type of middle-sized city that we study led instead to increased density and mixed uses in the central areas.

Pharmacists are increasingly recognized as crucial members of the health care team. The role of pharmacists varies depending on the setting and state scope-of-practice laws. Despite the growing body of evidence demonstrating the effectiveness of engaging pharmacists as part of the direct patient care team, many pharmacists primarily dispense medications given the current landscape of job opportunities and restrictions in insurance reimbursement. Not using pharmacists at the top of their license may be a missed opportunity to leverage a workforce to manage disease burden especially among a growing aging population. To date, no single source of information exists that best characterizes the increasingly complex nature of the pharmacist workforce. In this study, we reviewed the literature and conducted interviews with key stakeholders from national pharmacy professional organizations. This study aimed to identify the many different settings where pharmacists work, their current and emerging roles, and the barriers and facilitators to greater involvement of pharmacists in patient care. Key findings include: n There is not a single, agreed upon categorization that captures the full range of pharmacists' roles and functions. n The most frequently mentioned roles for pharmacists identified from the literature and stakeholder interviews included medication dispensing, medication therapy management, chronic disease management, transition of care, and patient education, health promotion, and disease prevention. n There were about 387,000 licensed pharmacists in the U.S. as of October 2019 and 42,710 licensed pharmacists with active specialty certifications as of July 2019. n Pharmacists' engagement in patient care ranges from a consultative role whereby pharmacists fill in gaps in clinicians' knowledge, to the collaborative and integrative roles pharmacists can play in settings such as patient centered medical homes. Improving awareness of the potential roles of pharmacists would help to more effectively incorporate them into the health care team. n Pharmacist scope-of-practice laws and regulations vary by state with most states allowing prescriptive authority. Policy mechanisms such as collaborative practice agreements, statewide protocols, and standing orders further define the services and circumstances under which pharmacists can practice.

This paper explores the mobility patterns of elder workers in the United States, with a focus on mobility to and from work (e.g., commuting) across metropolitan areas and metropolitan population sizes. Using detailed time diaries from the American Time Use Survey for the years 2003-2018, estimates reveal a positive correlation between the time spent commuting and residing in metropolitan areas, which is also driven by longer commutes in more populated metropolitan areas. Furthermore, elder workers in metropolitan areas of more than 2.5 million inhabitants use more public transports in their commuting trips than similar workers in less-populated or non-metropolitan areas. The analysis presented here may allow policy makers to identify which elder workers may be more affected by the negative consequences of commuting, and also which groups of elder workers have more limitations in their commuting behaviors.

Nine percent of young U.S. children live in deep poverty, with state rates ranging from 17 percent in Mississippi to 4 percent in Utah. The families of these children have incomes below 50 percent of the federal poverty line, or less than $10,289 for a family of one parent and two children.1 These figures, based on 2019 data, predate the COVID-19 pandemic, which likely drove more families with young children into poverty and deep poverty given the large increase in unemployment related to workplace closures, lack of child care, and other pandemic conditions.2 While families in deep poverty may qualify for various forms of assistance, many experience severe financial hardship due to the very limited support provided by public benefits. In 16 states, cash assistance in the form of TANF (Temporary Aid to Needy Families) is provided to only 10 percent or fewer of families in poverty. Monthly TANF benefits vary across states, with 18 states providing less than $356 for a single parent family of three.3 Even SNAP (formerly known as food stamps), a benefit credited with reducing child poverty by 28 percent, leaves families with unmet needs.4 A recent analysis showed that the maximum SNAP benefit fell short of meeting monthly food costs by about $46 per family member.5 Although housing is the largest portion of most families’ expenses, federal rental assistance is available to only 22 percent of lowincome families with children, and only six states supplement this support with housing assistance targeted to families.6 Both a lack of material resources and parental stress associated with poverty have been identified as key pathways to worse health, developmental, and school-related outcomes of poor children compared to their non-poor peers.7 Although research focused specifically on young children in deep poverty is limited, the conditions of deep poverty suggest that these children may be at exceptionally high risk of poor outcomes. First, research has shown that poverty experienced in early childhood is especially detrimental to children’s development.8 Second, deep poverty may lead to especially high levels of stress among parents struggling to meet basic needs, and stress is associated with less optimal parenting behavior.9 Third, other factors associated with poverty and child well-being, such as poor birth outcomes and family social isolation, may be more prevalent among families with very little or no income. Understanding more about the early health and development of young children in deep poverty and related risk factors can inform policies tailored to this group of vulnerable families. To date, most recommendations explicitly targeted to reducing the number of families in deep poverty have focused mainly on policies that increase family income. The National Academy of Sciences report, Roadmap to Reducing Child Poverty, examines two policy packages that meet the goal of reducing both poverty and deep poverty by 50 percent. These packages include an increased minimum wage, a child allowance, and housing assistance.10Based on an earlier examination of young children and families in deep poverty, NCCP has recommended a mix of policies to increase family income and ensure immediate and longer-term supports for children’s healthy development in the family and in early care and education settings.11 This report presents new analyses with more recent data that highlight the needs of young children and families in deep poverty, along with updated recommendations. The key sections of the report are: ƒ A description of methods ƒ Findings that show: Œ Differences in health and development indicators across income groups Œ Differences in family and community factors across income groups Œ Racial/ethnic disparities in young children’s experience of deep poverty ƒ Summary ƒ Recommendations

The Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute prepares regular estimates of the population size of Utah’s middle class. The Gardner Institute bases its estimates on household income, compared with state medians and federal poverty guidelines by household size. This fact sheet provides Utah decision-makers with information about income classes in the state in 2019. After the U.S. Census Bureau releases 2020 data in November 2021, the Gardner Institute will issue a full report.

This thesis contains three essays on wages, worker mobility and the macroeconomy. Chapter 1 develops an equilibrium model of the labor market with on-the-job search, wagetenure contracts, and heterogeneity in match productivity. The model predicts an inverse relationship between match productivity and post-unemployment wages where workers in high productivity matches earn a low wage initially, but experience significant wage growth over tenure. The model is considered in the context of labor market entry for young adults. Unemployment risk in the transition process reduces worker mobility and limits the ability of workers to recover from a low quality initial match. Quantitatively, workers that initially form low quality matches expect to produce 8.0% less and consume 5.2% less in their first three years in the labor market relative to workers that initially form high quality matches. Chapter 2 studies efficiency in the model developed in Chapter 1. The social planner’s match formation strategy perfectly insures employed workers against unemployment risk and results in an 11.3% increase in permanent consumption relative to the competitive equilibrium. Two self-financed policies in the forms of an extension of unemployment insurance and a hiring subsidy are considered as alternative strategies to increase worker welfare. The optimal policies increase permanent consumption by 5.1% and 1.3% respectively relative to the competitive equilibrium, however both policies are associated with a decrease in average output per worker. Chapter 3, joint with Shouyong Shi, develops an equilibrium model of the labor market where workers have incomplete information about their ability. Search outcomes yield information for updating the belief about the ability, which affects optimal search decisions in the future. Firms respond to updated beliefs by altering vacancy creation and optimal wage contracts. To study equilibrium interactions between learning and search, this paper integrates learning into a search equilibrium with on-the-job search and wage-tenure contracts. The model is calibrated to quantify the extent to which learning and on-the-job search can explain empirical facts related to wage decreases in job-to-job transitions, duration dependence in unemployment, and frictional wage dispersion.

How entrenched is the spatial structure of inequality in cities? Although recent discussions provide conflicting answers to this question, the absence of long-term, longitudinal neighborhood data curtails direct examination of the issue. Focusing on the city of Denver, we develop a new strategy for analyzing neighborhood dynamics from 1940 to the present day. Our analysis of these data reveals surprising persistence in the income rank of neighborhoods between 1940 and 2016, which appears to be driven by the enduring position of white, upper-income places at the top of the neighborhood hierarchy. When low-income neighborhoods do rise in income rank, we find that change tends to be spatially concentrated in specific areas of the city and accelerates during broader historical episodes of urban change. We conclude that neighborhood inequality in Denver has endured over long periods of time and through substantial shifts in the wider urban landscape. Key Words: gentrification, GIS, inequality, neighborhoods, spatial demography.

Objectives We aimed to identify longitudinal patterns and predictors of acute care use (emergency department [ED] visits and hospitalizations) among individuals with SLE enrolled in Medicaid, the largest U.S. public insurance. Methods Using Medicaid data (29 states, 2000–2010) we identified 18–65-year-olds with SLE (≥3 SLE ICD-9 codes, 3rd code=index date), ≥12 months of enrollment prior to the index date and ≥24 months post. For each 90-day interval post index date, patients were assigned binary indicators (1=≥1 ED visit or hospitalization, 0=none). We used group-based trajectory models to graph patterns of overall and SLE-specific acute care use, and multinomial logistic regression models to examine predictors. Results Among 40,381 SLE patients, the mean age was 40.8 (SD 11.9). Using a three-group trajectory model, 2,342 (6%) were recurrent all-cause high acute care utilizers, 12,932 (32%) moderate, 25,107 (62%) infrequent; 25% were moderate or high utilizers for SLE. There were higher odds of all-cause, recurrent acute care use (vs. infrequent) among patients with severe vs. mild SLE (OR 3.37, 95% CI 3.0–3.78), chronic pain (odds ratio [OR] 1.63, 95% CI 1.15–2.32), depression (OR 1.90 95% CI 1.74–2.09), and cardiovascular disease (OR 2.29, 95% CI 2.08–2.52). Older age, male sex and hydroxychloroquine use were associated with lower odds of recurrent overall and SLE-specific acute care use. Conclusion Nearly 40% of Medicaid beneficiaries with SLE are recurrent all-cause acute care utilizers; 25% have recurrent use for SLE. Modifiable factors, including outpatient management of SLE and comorbidities, may reduce avoidable acute care use

How does housing wealth affect religiousness? We compare home owners and renters in US local markets using shocks to house prices as a source of exogenous variation in housing wealth. Rises in property prices are associated with a decline in time spent on attending religious services and practices and on religious education, for home owners relative to renters. In contrast, time allocated to volunteering and socializing is not affected, and time spent on non-religious education and on home-ownership activities increases. The reduction in religious activities is stronger for poorer home owners, and it does not revert when property prices decline.

This study investigated the impacts of changes in land cover and climate on runoff and sediment yield in a river basin in India. Land Change Modeler was used to derive the future land cover and its changes using the Sankey diagram approach. The future climatic parameters were derived from five general circulation models for two emission scenarios with representative concentration pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5. The land cover and climate change impacts on runoff and sediment yield were estimated using SWAT model. The results show important changes in land cover and indicate that urban and agricultural areas strongly influence the runoff and sediment yield. Among the land cover and climate change impacts, climate has more predominant (70%–95%) impact. Runoff and sediment yield are likely to decrease in both RCP scenarios in the future period. The impacts of land cover changes are more prominent on sediment yield than runoff.

In the last half-century, a large academic literature has emerged documenting the empirical relationship between non-cognitive skills and labor market outcomes. In this paper, I review this literature, putting emphasis on new work in economics. The literature provides overwhelming evidence that non-cognitive skills (e.g. internal locus of control, social skills, motivation, etc.) are associated with, and likely cause, labor market success. Furthermore, I summarize a growing literature that documents the rising value of non-cognitive skills relative to cognitive skills, especially post 2000, and that, due to the nature technological change, this trend is likely to continue. Finally, I document two shortcomings of the literature: (1) no study has successfully isolated the causal effect of non-cognitive skills training in a developed country and (2) very little is known about the value of signaling non-cognitive skills to employers.

I examine the impact of the COVID-19 shock on parents’ labor supply during the initial stages of the pandemic. Using difference-in-difference estimation and monthly panel data from the Current Population Survey (CPS), I compare labor market attachment, non-work activity, hours worked, and earnings and wages of those in areas with early school closures and stay-in-place orders with those in areas with delayed or no pandemic closures. While there was no immediate impact on detachment or unemployment, mothers with jobs in early closure states were 68.8 percent more likely than mothers in late closure states to have a job but not be working as a result of early shutdowns. There was no effect on working fathers or working women without school age children. Mothers who continued working increased their work hours relative to comparable fathers; this effect, however, appears entirely driven by a reduction in fathers’ hours worked. Overall, the pandemic appears to have induced a unique immediate juggling act for working parents of school age children. Mothers took a week of leave from formal work; fathers working fulltime, for example, reduced their hours worked by 0.53 hours over the week. While experiences were different for mothers and fathers, each are vulnerable to scarring and stunted opportunities for career growth and advancement due to the pandemic.